Sunday, September 18, 2011

Boise State #5 in Official Billingsley Ratings

Unofficial BCS Standings--Week 3

These include the Coaches Poll and AP Poll actual poll percentages, the official Sagarin ratings and now based on the actual Billingsley ratings.  As expected, the discrepancy between estimated and actual ratings made very little difference, with #7 and #8 changing places and #12 & 13 being so close it made a difference.  As we get all six computers in the mix, the difference between projected and actual will be minimal.


1.    Oklahoma 99.19% + 98.07% + 92.00 = 289.26
2.    Alabama 95.05% + 93.47% + 88.00 = 286.52
3.    LSU 93.08% + 94.93% + 96.00 = 284.01
4.    Boise State 82.17% + 87.27% + 82.00 = 251.44
5.    Stanford 81.90% + 80.80% + 70.00 = 232.70
6.    Oklahoma State 76.34% + 72.80% + 80.00 = 219.14
7.    Nebraska 65.49% + 60.73% + 64.00 = 190.22
8.    Wisconsin 76.00% + 78.00% + 36.00 = 190.00
9.    South Carolina 59.39% + 59.40% + 58.00 = 176.79
10.  Oregon 54.51% + 59.93% + 56.00 = 170.44
11.  Virginia Tech 57.76% + 55.33% + 48.00 = 161.09
12.  Florida 45.43% + 44.60% + 56.00 = 146.03
13.  Texas A&M 70.04% + 69.53% + 6.00 = 145.57
14.  Arkansas 57.69% + 52.07% + 30.00 = 139.76
15.  Florida State 54.31% + 59.73% + 4.00 = 118.04
16.  West Virginia 35.86% + 38.60% + 40.00 = 114.46
17.  South Florida 32.88% + 33.07% + 24.00 = 89.95
18.  Texas 31.46% + 26.80% + 28.00 = 86.26
19.  Baylor 26.51% + 34.73% + 20.00 = 81.44
20.  Clemson 12.27% + 18.13% + 36.00 = 66.40
21.  TCU 21.02% + 18.20% + 26.00 = 65.22
22.  Michigan 16.47% + 17.73% + 4.00 = 38.20
23.  Nevada 0.00% + 0.00% + 28.00 = 28.00
24.  Utah 1.15% + 1.27% + 24.00 = 26.42
25.  Georgia Tech 8.00 + 3.93% + 14.00 = 25.93




26.  North Carolina 6.71% + 0.00 + 18.00 = 24.71
27.  Illinois 6.10% + 7.07% + 10.00 = 23.17
28.    Auburn.95% + 1.93% + 16.00 = 18.86
29.  Mississippi State 0.00% + .93% + 16.00 = 16.93
30.  Ohio State 6.24% + 1.07% + 6.00 = 13.31
31.  Michigan State 8.07% + 2.80% + 2.00 = 12.87
32.  Washington 0.00% + 0.00% + 8.00 = 8.00
33.  Missouri 1.49% + .67% + 4.00 = 6.16
34.  Houston 4.07% + 1.67% + 0.00 = 5.74
35.  Miami of Florida 2.64% + 1.53% + 0.00 = 4.16
36.  California 1.42% + 0.00 + 2.00 = 3.42
37.  Iowa State 1.83% + 1.27% + 0.00 = 3.10

Computer Composite, Week 3

At this point, still just two computers (Sagarin and Billingsley) that provide reliable results.


1.     LSU ((23 + 25) *2) = 96
2.    Oklahoma ((22 + 24) *2) = 92
3.    Alabama ((25 + 19) *2) = 88
4.    Boise State ((20 + 21) *2) = 82
5.    Oklahoma State ((17 + 23) *2) = 80
6.    USC ((24 + 12) *2) = 72
7.    Stanford ((13 + 22) *2) = 70
8.    Nebraska ((15 + 17) *2) = 64
8.    South Carolina ((16 + 16) *2) = 64
10.  Clemson ((18 + 11) *2) = 58
11.  Oregon ((8 + 20) *2) = 56
11.  Florida ((21 + 7) *2) = 56
13.  Virginia Tech ((11 + 13) *2) = 48
14   West Virginia ((19 + 1) *2) = 40
15.  Wisconsin ((10 + 18) *2) = 36
16.  Arkansas (*0 + 15) *2) = 30
17.  Nevada ((0 + 14) *2) = 28
17.  Texas ((14 + 0) *2) = 28
19.  TCU ((4 + 9) *2) = 26
20.  South Florida ((12 + 0) *2) = 24
20.  Utah ((6 + 6) *2) = 24
22.  Baylor ((0 + 10) *2) = 20
23.  North Carolina ((9 + 0) *2) = 18
24.  Auburn ((3 + 5) *2) = 16
24.  Mississippi State ((0 + 8) *2) = 16




26.  Georgia Tech ((7 + 0) *2) = 14
27.  Illinois ((5 + 0) * 2) = 10
28.  Washington ((0 + 4) * 2) = 8
29.  Texas A&M ((0 + 3) *2) = 6
30.  Florida State ((0 + 2) *2) = 4
30.  Michigan ((2 + 0) *2) = 4
32.  California ((1 + 0) *2) = 2

AP Poll Percentages, Week 3

The AP Percentages are important because the Harris Poll waits to start until later in the season.  Then, they just look at the AP and Coaches Poll and basically vote those anyway.  So the AP is a good precursor of what the Harris Poll will look like.  I use these percentages, then, to compile the BCS Standings.

1.  Oklahoma 98.07%
2.  LSU 94.93%
3.  Alabama 93.47%
4.  Boise State 87.27%
5.  Stanford 80.80%
6.  Wisconsin 78.00%
7.  Oklahoma State 72.80%
8.  Texas A&M 69.53%
9.  Nebraska 60.73%
10.  Oregon 59.93%
11.  Florida State 59.73%
12.  South Carolina 59.40%
13.  Virginia Tech 55.33%
14.  Arkansas 52.07%
15.  Florida 44.60%
16.  West Virginia 38.60%
17.  Baylor 34.73%
18.  South Florida 33.07%
19.  Texas 26.80%
20.  TCU 18.20%
21.  Clemson 18.13%
22.  Michigan 17.73%
23.  USC 17.33%
24.  Illinois 7.07%
25.  Georgia Tech 3.93%

26.  Michigan State 2.80%
27.  Auburn 1.93%
28.  Houston 1.67%
29.  Miami of Florida 1.53%
30.  Iowa State 1.27%
30.  Utah 1.27%
32.  Ohio State 1.07%
33.  Maryland 1.00%
34.  Mississippi State .93%
35.  Missouri .67%
36.  Arizona State .60%
37.  Vanderbilt .53%
37.  San Diego State .53%
37.  Notre Dame .53%

Coaches Poll Percentages, Week 3

1.  Oklahoma 99.19%
2.  Alabama 95.05%
3.  LSU 93.08%
4.  Boise State 82.17%
5.  Stanford 81.90%
6.  Oklahoma State 76.34%
7.  Wisconsin 76.00%
8.  Texas A&M 70.04%
9.  Nebraska 65.49%
10.  South Carolina 59.39%
11.  Virginia Tech 57.76%
12.  Arkansas 57.69%
13.  Oregon 54.51%
14.  Florida State 54.31%
15.  Florida 45.43%
16.  West Virginia 35.86%
17.  South Florida 32.88%
18.  Texas 31.46%
19.  Baylor 26.51%
20.  TCU 21.02%
21.  Michigan 16.47%
22.  Clemson 12.27%
23.  Michigan State 8.07%
24.  Georgia Tech 8.00%
25.  North Carolina 6.71%


26.  Ohio State 6.24%
27.  Illinois 6.10%
28.  Houston 4.07%
29.  Miami of Florida 2.64%
30.  Iowa State 1.83%
31.  Missouri 1.49%
32.  California 1.42%
33.  Penn State 1.29%
34.  Utah 1.15%
35.  Arizona State 1.08%
36.  Auburn .95%
36.  San Diegeo State .95%

Boise State Remains #4 in Coaches Poll

Boise State Still #4 in AP

according to my sources...

Shea McClellin and Tyrone Crawford Tied for #6 in Sacks


RankPlayerPosClGmSoloAstYdsTotalPG
1Nordly Capi, Colorado St.DLSO351375.51.83
2Tony Jerod-Eddie, Texas A&MDLSR2301731.50
3Vontaze Burfict, Arizona St.LBJR3403441.33
3Korey Jones, WyomingLBJR3402941.33
3Kenny Anunike, DukeDLJR3401441.33
6Shea McClellin, Boise St.DLSR221172.51.25
6Tyrone Crawford, Boise St.DLSR221112.51.25
8Chase Thomas, StanfordLBSR331353.51.17
8Sio Moore, ConnecticutLBJR331213.51.17
8Nathan Ollie, Ball St.DLSO331213.51.17
11Greg Scruggs, LouisvilleDLSR3303231.00
11Cameron Meredith, NebraskaDLJR3302431.00
11Vinny Curry, MarshallDLSR3302331.00
11Jerome Long, San Diego St.DLSR3302031.00
11Darryl Cato-Bishop, North Carolina St.DLSO3301931.00
11Cordarro Law, Southern Miss.DLSR3301631.00
11Julius Warmsley, TulaneDLSO3301531.00
11Sam Miller, FIUDBSO3301531.00
11Whitney Mercilus, IllinoisDLJR3301531.00
11Derek Wolfe, CincinnatiDLSR3301531.00
11Brad Madison, MissouriDLJR3301431.00
11Tim Fugger, VanderbiltDLSR3301431.00
11Claude Davis, South Fla.DLSR3301231.00
11Meshak Williams, Kansas St.DLJR2202021.00
11Alex Means, Air ForceLBJR2201621.00
11Andre Monroe, MarylandDLFR2201521.00
11Justin Francis, RutgersDLSR2201121.00
11Scott Vallone, RutgersDLJR220921.00
11Scott Solomon, RiceDLSR220921.00
11Eddie Brown, Jr., Texas A&MDLSR220921.00
11Jordan Voelker, Kansas St.DLSR220821.00
11Zach Payne, Air ForceDLSR220721.00
11R.J. Washington, OklahomaDLJR220621.00
11Brett Roy, NevadaDLSR220521.00