The Mountain West would be drooling over this one. I have now simulated 15 separate seasons in EA Sports' popular NCAA Football software. For those who are new and wondering why on earth I would want to do it:
Well, besides being fun and quite realistic, I discovered a long time ago (back in 2002) that the software was amazingly accurate at predicting games, at least from Boise State's perspective. In the last nine years since that time, the software has accurately predicted all but six regular season Bronco games. Given that track record, I have to at least see each year what they are forecasting.
Before I go any further, I must point out that you see all kinds of stories about how the software predicts a game and they simulate a game to see the "winner". You can't do that. The possibilities for each matchup are such that the actual outcome could be all over the map--one team could win by 20 or the other could win by 20, and all kinds of results in between. So merely choosing a random game to represent what the software predicts doesn't cut it. I have found that you need at least 50 simulations and preferably 100 to be fairly accurate. This will work out all the random things that can happen, such as a key player getting hurt the week before or during the game, or a key turnover happening, etc. that might skew the final result. These things happen to both teams, but if you extend the number of samples, you get a truer result of the outcome.
I've already mentioned that I had previously run nine simulations and Boise State finished the year #1 twice. I stopped this latest round at seven because it produced a result that the Mountain West Conference would salivate over. Here is what happened:
Boise State finished the season 11-1, with their only regular season loss to TCU, and thus finished the season #3. TCU was #1 in the nation. Boise State drew a Rose Bowl berth with Oregon, which they won 35-18 and at the end of the bowl season, TCU was #1 and Boise State #2.
In the 15 simulations thus far, Boise State has now won three "national championships". I will have a summary of the odds of winning a title, the odds of winning the Mountain West, the odds of going to a BCS Bowl, as well as the software's overall predictions for all Boise State games later in the summer.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Here are the Match 3 Games so far on Blue Through and Through. There are currently three but these will be expanded greatly in the weeks and months to come. They are listed with the most current first. (Note: answers to all Match 3 games can be found by clicking on Read More.)
Game Three:
Another Match 3--There are three columns below. I am calling this one "Layers of Defense". The first column lists a starter on the defensive line, the second lists a starter at linebacker and the third column lists a starter at safety for Boise State. The object of the game is to match the starter on the defensive line with a starting linebacker from the same year and a starting safety from that same year. In this game, there are no overlaps so in that way it is easier. When you are done, you should have five "layers of defense" consisting of three starters from the same year, a defensive lineman, a linebacker and a safety.
(Answers are found by clicking on "Read More".)
Defensive Lineman Linebacker Safety
Saia Misa, Jr. Andy Avalos Jeff Davis
Marcus Koch Aaron Tevis Phil Bartle
Ryan Winterswyck Bryan Johnson Jim Meeks
Julius Roberts Jim Ellis George Iloka
Mike Maloy Kauhi Hookano Wes Nurse
Game Two:
There are three columns below. The first contains the name of a Boise State quarterback, the second column contains the name of a Boise State running back and the third column contains a Boise State receiver. The object is to match the quarterback, the running back and the receiver that played in the same starting lineup. There may be more than one match, so to get the correct answer, use a process of elimination so that in the end, you have five matches consisting of a quarterback, the QB coach who coached him and the head coach in the year he started.
Answers can be found by clicking on "Read More" at the bottom of this post.
Quarterback Quarterback Coach Head Coach
Tony Hilde Mark Helerich Dan Hawkins
Jared Zabransky Andy Ludwig Lyle Setencich
Keith Jarrett Jim Zorn Pokey Allen
Bart Hendricks Chris Petersen Skip Hall
Mike Virden Gary Cabe Dirk Koetter
Game One:
Match 3 is a new matching game on Blue Through and Through. There are three columns below. The first contains the name of a Boise State quarterback, the second column contains the name of a Boise State running back and the third column contains a Boise State receiver. The object is to match the quarterback, the running back and the receiver that played in the same starting lineup. There may be more than one match, so to get the correct answer, use a process of elimination so that in the end, you have five matches of three players each.
Answers can be found by clicking on "Read More".
Quarterback Running Back Receiver
Ryan Dinwiddie Chris Thomas Tony Hunter
Jared Zabransky Jon Francis Eric Andrade
Jeff Mladenich Chris Jackson Tim Gilligan
Vince Alcalde David Mikell Drisan James
Hazsen Choates Lee Marks Mike Wilson
Game Three:
Another Match 3--There are three columns below. I am calling this one "Layers of Defense". The first column lists a starter on the defensive line, the second lists a starter at linebacker and the third column lists a starter at safety for Boise State. The object of the game is to match the starter on the defensive line with a starting linebacker from the same year and a starting safety from that same year. In this game, there are no overlaps so in that way it is easier. When you are done, you should have five "layers of defense" consisting of three starters from the same year, a defensive lineman, a linebacker and a safety.
(Answers are found by clicking on "Read More".)
Defensive Lineman Linebacker Safety
Saia Misa, Jr. Andy Avalos Jeff Davis
Marcus Koch Aaron Tevis Phil Bartle
Ryan Winterswyck Bryan Johnson Jim Meeks
Julius Roberts Jim Ellis George Iloka
Mike Maloy Kauhi Hookano Wes Nurse
Game Two:
There are three columns below. The first contains the name of a Boise State quarterback, the second column contains the name of a Boise State running back and the third column contains a Boise State receiver. The object is to match the quarterback, the running back and the receiver that played in the same starting lineup. There may be more than one match, so to get the correct answer, use a process of elimination so that in the end, you have five matches consisting of a quarterback, the QB coach who coached him and the head coach in the year he started.
Answers can be found by clicking on "Read More" at the bottom of this post.
Quarterback Quarterback Coach Head Coach
Tony Hilde Mark Helerich Dan Hawkins
Jared Zabransky Andy Ludwig Lyle Setencich
Keith Jarrett Jim Zorn Pokey Allen
Bart Hendricks Chris Petersen Skip Hall
Mike Virden Gary Cabe Dirk Koetter
Game One:
Match 3 is a new matching game on Blue Through and Through. There are three columns below. The first contains the name of a Boise State quarterback, the second column contains the name of a Boise State running back and the third column contains a Boise State receiver. The object is to match the quarterback, the running back and the receiver that played in the same starting lineup. There may be more than one match, so to get the correct answer, use a process of elimination so that in the end, you have five matches of three players each.
Answers can be found by clicking on "Read More".
Quarterback Running Back Receiver
Ryan Dinwiddie Chris Thomas Tony Hunter
Jared Zabransky Jon Francis Eric Andrade
Jeff Mladenich Chris Jackson Tim Gilligan
Vince Alcalde David Mikell Drisan James
Hazsen Choates Lee Marks Mike Wilson
Match 3 is a new matching game on Blue Through and Through. There are three columns below. The first contains the name of a Boise State quarterback, the second column contains the name of a Boise State running back and the third column contains a Boise State receiver. The object is to match the quarterback, the running back and the receiver that played in the same starting lineup. There may be more than one match, so to get the correct answer, use a process of elimination so that in the end, you have five matches consisting of a quarterback, the QB coach who coached him and the head coach in the year he started.
Answers can be found by clicking on "Read More".
Quarterback Quarterback Coach Head Coach
Tony Hilde Mark Helerich Dan Hawkins
Jared Zabransky Andy Ludwig Lyle Setencich
Keith Jarrett Jim Zorn Pokey Allen
Bart Hendricks Chris Petersen Skip Hall
Mike Virden Gary Cabe Dirk Koetter
Answers can be found by clicking on "Read More".
Quarterback Quarterback Coach Head Coach
Tony Hilde Mark Helerich Dan Hawkins
Jared Zabransky Andy Ludwig Lyle Setencich
Keith Jarrett Jim Zorn Pokey Allen
Bart Hendricks Chris Petersen Skip Hall
Mike Virden Gary Cabe Dirk Koetter
Boise State Football Statistics, Lineups and Records
I had set a goal of getting these done by the start of football season, 2011. I just completed a major session in which the statistics and lineups are nearly complete going back to 1968. There are still some holes in which no publication from Boise State (media guides, etc.) nor the Idaho Statesman has the complete information. So bear with me on that--I will find out the missing information and get that to where it is 100% complete and accurate.
There are some missing stats from 1973 and a problem with the blog itself is keeping me from updating that information but I am trying to get to the bottom of that as well.
I have come up with brand new records that have never been featured before in any publication and those are now complete, as is everything else in that tab. I will continue to add new records to that tab and catch up on the existing ones published previously in past football media guides.
I still believe I can get all three of these sections completely done before September. Thanks for your patience.
There are some missing stats from 1973 and a problem with the blog itself is keeping me from updating that information but I am trying to get to the bottom of that as well.
I have come up with brand new records that have never been featured before in any publication and those are now complete, as is everything else in that tab. I will continue to add new records to that tab and catch up on the existing ones published previously in past football media guides.
I still believe I can get all three of these sections completely done before September. Thanks for your patience.
247 Sports Ranks Nick Patti #4 on Day Two of Elite 11 QB Competition
Here is what 247sports.com had to say about Boise State quarterback recruit Nick Patti today:
The smallest prospect at the event, Patti looked to have the biggest arm on Tuesday. When other quarterbacks were laboring late in the day to sniff the target on the deep ball in the accuracy competition, Patti was effortless in his attempts. He also was very good throwing on the run and outside the pocket, not losing any zip on the football. Throwing alongside current Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore, it became apparent that Patti’s stature shouldn’t keep him from plenty of success under Chris Peterson.
http://247sports.com/Article/Elite-11-The-top-11-quarterbacks-from-Tuesdays-event-31999
The smallest prospect at the event, Patti looked to have the biggest arm on Tuesday. When other quarterbacks were laboring late in the day to sniff the target on the deep ball in the accuracy competition, Patti was effortless in his attempts. He also was very good throwing on the run and outside the pocket, not losing any zip on the football. Throwing alongside current Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore, it became apparent that Patti’s stature shouldn’t keep him from plenty of success under Chris Peterson.
http://247sports.com/Article/Elite-11-The-top-11-quarterbacks-from-Tuesdays-event-31999
Presnell Signs New Bronco Recruit
Riley Holsinger, a 5-9 guard from Spokane, Washington, has verbally committed to play women's college basketball at Boise State.
Holsinger wasn't a huge scorer (15.3 a game at North Central High School), but she's a winner from a 28-3 Lewis and Clark High School team (as a sophomore) and she has a good all-around game. Holsinger also positioned herself for 7.7 rebounds last season for North Central, and posted 3.6 assists, 3 blocks and 3.8 steals a game. Holsinger was a two-time All-Greater Spokane League player.
The Broncos have some serious improvement to do, as they head into the much more competitive Mountain West Conference this season.
Holsinger wasn't a huge scorer (15.3 a game at North Central High School), but she's a winner from a 28-3 Lewis and Clark High School team (as a sophomore) and she has a good all-around game. Holsinger also positioned herself for 7.7 rebounds last season for North Central, and posted 3.6 assists, 3 blocks and 3.8 steals a game. Holsinger was a two-time All-Greater Spokane League player.
The Broncos have some serious improvement to do, as they head into the much more competitive Mountain West Conference this season.
Moore Watch Lists
More Broncos were put on Watch Lists for the nation's top college football players (ho-hum). Again, these watch lists contain a player from close to half of the college football teams, so they mean nothing.
Kellen Moore was added to the O'Brien and Walter Camp lists while Doug Martin was placed on the Doak Walker Watch list. Here is a summary of those lists thus far:
Kellen Moore (Quarterback) - Maxwell (most outstanding overall); O'Brien (quarterback); Walter Camp (most outstanding overall)
Billy Winn (Defensive Line) - Bednarik (defense); Nagurski (defense); Outland (interior lineman)
Nate Potter (Offensive Line) - Outland; Lombardi (lineman)
Thomas Byrd (Center) - Lombardi; Rimington (center)
Doug Martin (Running Back) - Maxwell; Walker (running back)
Kyle Efaw (Tight End) - Mackey (tight end)
George Iloka (Safety) - Thorpe (defensive back)
Shea McClellin (Defensive End) - Lombardi
Tyler Shoemaker (Wide Receiver) - Biletnikoff (wide receiver)
Kellen Moore was added to the O'Brien and Walter Camp lists while Doug Martin was placed on the Doak Walker Watch list. Here is a summary of those lists thus far:
Kellen Moore (Quarterback) - Maxwell (most outstanding overall); O'Brien (quarterback); Walter Camp (most outstanding overall)
Billy Winn (Defensive Line) - Bednarik (defense); Nagurski (defense); Outland (interior lineman)
Nate Potter (Offensive Line) - Outland; Lombardi (lineman)
Thomas Byrd (Center) - Lombardi; Rimington (center)
Doug Martin (Running Back) - Maxwell; Walker (running back)
Kyle Efaw (Tight End) - Mackey (tight end)
George Iloka (Safety) - Thorpe (defensive back)
Shea McClellin (Defensive End) - Lombardi
Tyler Shoemaker (Wide Receiver) - Biletnikoff (wide receiver)
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