Sunday, May 1, 2011

New WAC Commissioner's Cup Projections

With two major championships out of the way, there are just five remaining, and men's golf will be decided this week.  After that, just men's and women's track, softball and baseball.

There are five WAC schools that are able to field men's indoor track, so the winner gets five points, #2 gets four points and so on.  Some sports, such as gymnastics, have auxiliary members (schools that are not officially in the WAC but participate in the conference in that sport).  In those cases, the auxiliary teams do not get points for the Commissioner's Cup but their places count in the point configuration.  If there are five schools that compete in a sport and Sacramento State, for example, is third, the league champion still gets five points, second gets four points, and the next WAC school, the fourth-place team, gets two points.  Men's and women's tennis, baseball and softball all split awarded points with half going to the regular season and half to the postseason championships.

Here are the current standings following tennis:

1.  Boise State 80.75
2.  Utah State 63.25
3.  Fresno State 62.00
4.  New Mexico State 60.50 
5.  Idaho 51.00
6.  Nevada 49.25 
7.  Hawai'i 43.75
8.  San Jose State 40.00
9.  Louisiana Tech  36.50 

Here are the Projections for the remaining sports:

 Men's Golf:  (May 2-4)
1.  New Mexico State (9 points)
2.  Idaho (8)
3.  Fresno State (7)
4.  San Jose State (6)
5.  Nevada (5)
6.  Louisiana Tech (4)
7.  Hawai'i (3)
8.  Boise State (2)
9.  Utah State (1) 

Softball:  (May 11-14)
1.  Fresno State (6 points)
1.  Boise State (6.25 points)
1.  New Mexico State (5.75)
4.  Hawai'i (5)
5.  Utah State (4)
6.  San Jose State (3)
7.  Louisiana Tech (2)
8.  Nevada (1)

Men's Track (May 10-13)
1.  Utah State (5 points)
2.  Fresno State (4)
3.  Boise State (3)
4.  Louisiana Tech (2)
5.  Idaho (1)

Women's Track (May 10-13)
1.  Louisiana Tech (8 points)
2.  Nevada (7)
3.  Utah State (6)
4.  New Mexico State (5)
5.  Fresno State (4)
6.  Idaho (3)
7.  Hawai'i (2)
8.  Boise State (1)

Baseball:  (May 25-29)
1.  Fresno State (7 points)
2.  Hawai'i (6 points)
3.  San Jose State (5)
4.  Nevada (4)
5.  Louisiana Tech (3)
6.  New Mexico State (2)

I will continue to do these projections on a semi-weekly basis.  As the teams get close to the championships in their respective sports, the data will get more accurate as being able to project the championship results.  As of right now, here are the projections for the final Commissioner's Cup point totals:

1.  Boise State 93.00  
     With tennis expected to provide the majority of the spring points for Boise State, the Broncos are nearing the finish line but about out of gas.  Softball is the only sport that will provide significant points.  The one wild card is men's golf--the golf team can make up ground much easier than the women's track team.  If Boise State's golf team can finish fourth or higher this week, the Broncos will just about clinch the Cup.  If they finish sixth, it will be extremely hard for Fresno State.  If they finish towards the bottom as expected, it's going to be close, especially if Fresno State is near the top.  Boise State is expected to pick up 12.25 more points the rest of the spring but they have some upside built in.  

2.  Fresno State 90.00
     The Bulldogs traditionally are the strongest team in the spring sports and this year should be no exception. Fresno State was forecast to score 45 points this spring and they are right on target.  Even after tennis, there is another 28 points in reserve.  They are still projected to win the baseball and softball tournaments.  If they do well in women's track, the Cup is too close to call.  

Fresno State will once again provide the closest challenge to Boise State 

3.  New Mexico State 83.50
     The Aggies out dual Boise State for having the second best spring sports program to Fresno State, scoring 23 more points in the five remaining sports.  The Aggies' best hope is to finish strong in their strengths and hope that their women's track team can finish high.  Still, the odds of NM State winning are not good.   

4.  Utah State 79.25
     USU does fairly well in the spring but they aren't able to field a team in baseball, men's golf or women's golf.  Until they are able to fund those programs, Utah State will never have a serious chance of winning an overall competition.  Utah State is projected to score just 16 more points this spring.  They could possibly finish third if everything goes right.

5.  Nevada 66.25
     Nevada has been a challenger nearly every year in the Commissioner's Cup.  However, poor fall programs hurt their chances severely.  They finished near the bottom in women's cross country, soccer and volleyball.  The only reason they are this high is because of their football, basketball and swimming programs.  They have passed Idaho, but that could be as high as they get this year.  Nevada is projected to score 17 more points in the spring.

6. Hawai'i 64.75
    Hawai'i has solid teams in both softball and baseball.  They could finish in the top four if their women's track and men's golf teams do well--that isn't expected.  UH should score in the neighborhood of 21 more points this spring.  That's a good total, but they are too far down to climb all the way to the top.

7.  Idaho 63.00
     The Vandals have been in the middle of the pack for the last several years.  Idaho will get most of their points in men's and women's golf and men's tennis.  Idaho should get about 12 more points this spring.  They will fight for positions 5-8.

7.  Louisiana Tech 55.50
     Louisiana Tech has climbed out of the cellar in the Cup race and will score around 19 more points this spring.  They probably won't get higher than #7, but they have a shot at that.

9.  San Jose State 54.00
     The Spartans should also do well in baseball.  San Jose State is projected to score 14 more points this spring.

Hawai'i Has Defeated New Mexico State 5-4 in 2nd Game

Hawai'i has come back strong this weekend.  The Rainbow Wahine have won three straight games against New Mexico State, knocking them out of first place.  

Boise State leads the WAC again, for the fourth time this season, with a 15-3 league record.  New Mexico State is 14-4, while Fresno State is 13-5.  

It is 12:24 AM, and once again, you heard this news first in the Boise Valley on Blue Through and Through.  Good night.