Monday, August 1, 2011

Fifth Simulation Shows What We Want to Know

There are three main questions surrounding how people think Boise State will fare this season:

1.  What are the odds Boise State goes undefeated with their tough schedule?
2.  What are the odds Boise State will play for its first-ever "national championship" (in major college)?
3.  What are Boise State's chances of actually winning a national championship?

These are going to be three different probabilities of course, and I'll be able to give you those odds later in the month.  I have done 29 simulations of EA Sports' NCAA Football thus far and am well on the way to reaching 100 simulations, being as this is just August 1.

The good news is that Boise State just finished a simulation as the "national champions".  This software is something I believe in--the EA Sports people do their homework and build in hundreds of factors into their software each year.  In this particular simulation, Boise State was able to beat Georgia 47-20, beat Toledo 38-10, got by Tulsa 45-31 (which looks like one of the toughest games of the year), downed Nevada 27-13, beat Fresno State 38-17, squeaked by Colorado State 38-31, blanked Air Force 30-0, downed UNLV 45-14, got by TCU 43-10, defeated San Diego State 41-22, blanked Wyoming 51-0 and beat New Mexico 38-3 to finish the regular season 12-0.

The Broncos were ranked #2 and faced Oklahoma State in the title game.  Boise State won that game 45-42.  It was the fifth simulation that produced a Boise State "national championship", and pretty much confirms my earlier guess that the odds were about 1-6 (or 5 in 29) that Boise State could buck the odds and actually win the thing.

Many more details coming up later in the month.

Week 12 SFL Schedule

The playoff field for the Simulation Football League playoffs is nearly set.  The 2009 Boise State and 2001 Miami of Florida teams have wrapped up division titles.  In the Boise State Division, the 2010 Broncos can clinch a berth with either a win or a loss by the 2006 Fiesta Bowl team.  The 2010 Boise State beat the '06 Broncos 41-7 four weeks ago. 

In the Championship Division, USC can clinch a playoff berth unless they lose and Texas wins.  The two are tied for second place but USC owns the tiebreaker with a victory over the Longhorns one week ago.

2006 Boise State vs. 2009 Boise State
2008 Boise State vs. 2010 Boise State
2001 Boise State vs. 2004 Boise State
2002 Boise State vs. 2005 Boise State

2003 Boise State vs. 2008 Florida
2007 Boise State vs. 2003 LSU

2001 Miami of Florida vs. 2009 Alabama
2002 Ohio State vs. 2005 Texas
2004 USC vs. 2007 LSU
2006 Florida vs. 2010 Auburn