The Mountain West would be drooling over this one. I have now simulated 15 separate seasons in EA Sports' popular NCAA Football software. For those who are new and wondering why on earth I would want to do it:
Well, besides being fun and quite realistic, I discovered a long time ago (back in 2002) that the software was amazingly accurate at predicting games, at least from Boise State's perspective. In the last nine years since that time, the software has accurately predicted all but six regular season Bronco games. Given that track record, I have to at least see each year what they are forecasting.
Before I go any further, I must point out that you see all kinds of stories about how the software predicts a game and they simulate a game to see the "winner". You can't do that. The possibilities for each matchup are such that the actual outcome could be all over the map--one team could win by 20 or the other could win by 20, and all kinds of results in between. So merely choosing a random game to represent what the software predicts doesn't cut it. I have found that you need at least 50 simulations and preferably 100 to be fairly accurate. This will work out all the random things that can happen, such as a key player getting hurt the week before or during the game, or a key turnover happening, etc. that might skew the final result. These things happen to both teams, but if you extend the number of samples, you get a truer result of the outcome.
I've already mentioned that I had previously run nine simulations and Boise State finished the year #1 twice. I stopped this latest round at seven because it produced a result that the Mountain West Conference would salivate over. Here is what happened:
Boise State finished the season 11-1, with their only regular season loss to TCU, and thus finished the season #3. TCU was #1 in the nation. Boise State drew a Rose Bowl berth with Oregon, which they won 35-18 and at the end of the bowl season, TCU was #1 and Boise State #2.
In the 15 simulations thus far, Boise State has now won three "national championships". I will have a summary of the odds of winning a title, the odds of winning the Mountain West, the odds of going to a BCS Bowl, as well as the software's overall predictions for all Boise State games later in the summer.
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