The improving Boise State men's cross country team was ranked ninth in the West Region by the U.S. Cross Country coaches.
There are nine regions across the country--Boise State finished seventh in the West last year after capturing the WAC title. New Mexico is ranked fourth in the Mountain Region, followed by Air Force at #5, #6 Wyoming and #7 Colorado State. TCU ranks 13th in the South.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Monday, August 29, 2011
Malcolm Johnson is Out for the Broncos
Torn ACL. I was really looking forward to see what the kid can do.
Might mean we see freshman sensation Jay Ajayi this year.
Might mean we see freshman sensation Jay Ajayi this year.
Deciding the Game for the Broncos
The crowd cheers when Doug Martin breaks free or Kellen Moore throws another laser-guided missile. But serious football fans know the heroes are the members of the offensive and defensive lines. The game is often won or lost in this combat zone of bent fingers, blood, sweat and guts.
The Boise State offensive line was one of the best in the nation last year in protecting quarterbacks and in opening holes for the running game. That unit comes into the 2011 season virtually intact. Center Thomas Byrd (5-11, 290, Sr.) anchors the line and will be starting his 41st consecutive game this Saturday against #19 Georgia. Byrd is once again on the Watch List for the Rimington Trophy, given annually to the nation's top offensive lineman. There were some holes in his game early in his career but Byrd has long since been one of the best there is in college football. He is in many ways the captain of the offensive line, the glue that holds not only the unit but the entire offense together. His explosiveness off the line deals blow after blow to his defender--I have rarely seen Byrd's man make a tackle behind the Bronco line.
All-American Nate Potter (6-6,295) needs to work on his footwork to make him a complete force. He's fine against bigger defenders but it's the quick defensive ends that can escape him. Like Byrd, Potter gives the Broncos senior leadership. Joe Kellogg (6-2, 303, Jr.) continues to show great improvement at the left guard spot. That side of the line is solid and as good as it gets. Where Boise State has concern is the right side.
Has Leno won himself a starting job?
Senior Chuck Hayes (6-2, 288), who used to be on the defensive line, battled sophomore Jake Broyles (6-4, 289, So.) for the right guard spot and it appears Broyles has won. It won't matter who starts because both are excellent and I expect both will play. The position is important to help develop passing lanes for Moore. Although Brenel Myers (6-2, 282, Jr.) handled TCU in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl, he hasn't started much since and, although Bronco Coach Chris Petersen hasn't named his starters yet, it appears that Charles Leno Jr. (6-3, 294, So.) will win the spot. Again it doesn't matter and, like the guards, both of these contenders are excellent.
Matt Paradis (6-1, 280, So.) is listed as the backup at center, but he can play anywhere on the line and has had an excellent fall camp. Faraji Wright has always been one of those promising talents that is an enigma. Wright (6-3, 275, Jr.) has yet to crack the starting lineup as the Broncos have continued to recruit better talent each year. Michael Ames (6-4, 283) has started in the past and is certainly capable against anyone. Bronson Durrant (6-3, 267, Jr.) is a similar story to Wright--a lot of potential that has yet to translate into a starting gig. Spencer Gerke (6-3, 289, So.) is another very talented performer that could see the field either this year or next. Injuries have kept Cory Yriarte (6-1, 286, Sr.) from becoming the force we had hoped he would be but could step in at any time if need be.
Marcus Henry (6-2, 284) will redshirt and this beast could be a four-year starter for Boise State beginning next season. Reed Odhiambo is already 6-4, 302 and a redshirt year will tone him to a point where the mettle will be ready. Depth comes from Chris Tozer (6-3, 302, Jr), Adam Sheffield (6-4, 313, Fr.) and Greg Dohmen (6-2, 282, Fr.).
Defensively, Boise State finally took the last step in building a championship-caliber team last year when the defensive line was molded into one of the best in the nation. Of course the seeds were planted when these young men were first recruited but last year was the first time people outside of Bronco Nation found out what we knew was growing. Now, Boise State is blessed with 10 men who can take their place on the line without missing a beat. This freshness and flexibility enables defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski to wear down opposing offensive lines. In effect, it's like double-teaming every offensive lineman for the entire game. Opposing linemen won't know what that's like until they go through it.
Seniors Shea McClellin (6-3, 255) and Tyrone Crawford (6-4, 273) are a solid 1-2 punch. Their strength and quickness enables them to penetrate the backfield where most bigger, slower defensive linemen would still be grinding it out on the line. Jarrell Root (6-3, 262) also returns for his senior season and he'll see plenty of action this fall. "Scary Kharyee" is what they call young Mr. Marshall. At 6-1, 228, most teams would not use him at defensive end and he still has plenty of bulking to do. But again, that size allows him to get around most offensive tackles that are used to big, lumbering linemen battling with them. Those four ends give Boise State tremendous talent, strength and speed, something the Bronco defense excels at. Justin Jungblut (6-4, 273, So.) and true freshman Tyler Horn (6-4, 253) are talented underclassmen.
LaGarrette Blount.
There is no drop-off when you look at highly-recruited Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe (6-3,303, So.) and Baconator Michael Atkinson (6-0, 312, Jr.). Those guys are interchangeable with Baker and Winn and both are coming into their own as you read this. Replacing Baker and Winn will be painless--you just move these two in. Replacing Tjong-A-Tjoe and Atkinson will be a tougher task.
But then you have promising players like Greg Grimes (6-0, 268) and Darren Koontz (6-3, 280). If they are to crack the lineup next year, they will have to fight off some of the best defensive tackle talent ever to hit the school in Jeff Worthy (6-4, 289), a force that UCLA badly wanted for their own. The fact that someone of his talent will not start against Georgia Saturday speaks volumes. Freshmen Robert Ash (6-3, 259) and Sam Ukwuachu (6-5, 215) are right there in being part of the best Boise State recruiting class in history.
Depth comes from Beau Martin (6-2, 253, So.) and David Cushing (6-0, 263, Fr.).
Yes, the battle in the trenches will dictate the outcome of Saturday's season opener. And these warriors are ready.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Boise State Volleyball Team Downs Drake 3-2
The Lady Broncos taking on Drake at the Southern Utah Tournament in Cedar City. All tied up 2 sets apiece.
Coach Garus' team won the first set 25-19 before dropping two tight sets by identical 25-23 scores. The Broncos roared back to win the fourth set (25-19) but saw a 12-9 fifth set lead evaporate into a tie. The Broncos pulled ahead in the final minutes to pull out a narrow 16-14 win.
Fiona Jones leads Boise State with 18 kills while Breann Nesselhuf led the Broncos with 53 assists.
Boise State won its second consecutive match after dropping the season opener.
Coach Garus' team won the first set 25-19 before dropping two tight sets by identical 25-23 scores. The Broncos roared back to win the fourth set (25-19) but saw a 12-9 fifth set lead evaporate into a tie. The Broncos pulled ahead in the final minutes to pull out a narrow 16-14 win.
Fiona Jones leads Boise State with 18 kills while Breann Nesselhuf led the Broncos with 53 assists.
Boise State won its second consecutive match after dropping the season opener.
Seven Days To Go...
To the delight of football fans everywhere, the 2011 college football season for Boise State begins in earnest one week from today against #19 Georgia in the Georgia Dome.
Word is that Georgia is practicing already in that facility--one more hole in the "neutral site" theory. It seems that embattled Coach Mark Richt is pulling out all the stops--getting the services of former Bronco quarterback Mikey Tamburo to educate the Bulldog defense on the type of plays that Boise State runs, having Tamburo run the Georgia Scout offense, and then giving his defense confidence by destroying the offense that Tamburo runs to simulate the Bronco offense. I heard Tamburo threw several picks and the Bulldog defense gathered considerable confidence from that.
You really get the feeling that Richt and his staff is very worried about the possibility of losing to Boise State and what the Bulldog fan base would think if they fail next Saturday. I have to wonder if that nervousness is perceived by the Georgia football team and how that might affect them.
The Chick-Fil-A Bowl built in a 10-1 fan advantage for Georgia, only offering Boise State 7,000 tickets and will feature referees from Georgia's SEC Conference--the same refs that protected Auburn's #1 ranking and "national championship" berth late in the Alabama game last year.
Yep, Boise State is going to have to make this game so lopsided that the referees can't have an influence. And those calls could be early in the game (as they were on a kickoff return against Washington in 2007), the middle, the end, or consistent throughout. The Broncos are going to have to continue undeterred no matter what happens, don't let the calls get them down, don't let the crowd affect them, and remember what the coaches have told them and remember what got them to this point.
It's not going to be easy by any means but I have faith in them.
Word is that Georgia is practicing already in that facility--one more hole in the "neutral site" theory. It seems that embattled Coach Mark Richt is pulling out all the stops--getting the services of former Bronco quarterback Mikey Tamburo to educate the Bulldog defense on the type of plays that Boise State runs, having Tamburo run the Georgia Scout offense, and then giving his defense confidence by destroying the offense that Tamburo runs to simulate the Bronco offense. I heard Tamburo threw several picks and the Bulldog defense gathered considerable confidence from that.
You really get the feeling that Richt and his staff is very worried about the possibility of losing to Boise State and what the Bulldog fan base would think if they fail next Saturday. I have to wonder if that nervousness is perceived by the Georgia football team and how that might affect them.
The Chick-Fil-A Bowl built in a 10-1 fan advantage for Georgia, only offering Boise State 7,000 tickets and will feature referees from Georgia's SEC Conference--the same refs that protected Auburn's #1 ranking and "national championship" berth late in the Alabama game last year.
Yep, Boise State is going to have to make this game so lopsided that the referees can't have an influence. And those calls could be early in the game (as they were on a kickoff return against Washington in 2007), the middle, the end, or consistent throughout. The Broncos are going to have to continue undeterred no matter what happens, don't let the calls get them down, don't let the crowd affect them, and remember what the coaches have told them and remember what got them to this point.
It's not going to be easy by any means but I have faith in them.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
LSU, Iowa Highlight Bronco Basketball Schedule
Kudos to Leon Rice for insisting on an upgraded schedule for his much-improved Boise State basketball team. This is one of the toughest in school history. The Broncos host Utah in Taco Bell Arena November 16, they'll meet Drake in Boise on November 3, host Larry Bird's former school Indiana State on December 3, will travel to play LSU on December 10 and will face Iowa on December 22. The Broncos have a home-and-home with rival Fresno State.
No less than 16 games will be nationally-televised this fall as the Bronco team has picked up considerable interest since their great season last year. The season gets underway November 8 with an exhibition against Colorado Springs. Everything counts against Colorado Christian on November 11.
No less than 16 games will be nationally-televised this fall as the Bronco team has picked up considerable interest since their great season last year. The season gets underway November 8 with an exhibition against Colorado Springs. Everything counts against Colorado Christian on November 11.
| DATE | DAY | OPPONENT | TIME (MT) | TV |
| Nov. 8 | Tuesday | Colorado Springs (Exh.) | 7 p.m. | |
| Nov. 11 | Friday | Colorado Christian | TBA | |
| Nov. 16 | Wednesday | Utah | 6 p.m. | The Mtn. |
| Nov. 19 | Saturday | Cal State Northridge | TBA | |
| Nov. 22 | Tuesday | at Long Beach State | TBA | |
| Nov. 26 | Saturday | Northern Illinois | TBA | |
| Nov. 30 | Wednesday | Drake | 7 p.m. | |
| Dec. 3 | Saturday | Indiana State | 8 p.m. | |
| Dec. 5 | Monday | Idaho State | 7 p.m. | |
| Dec. 7 | Wednesday | Portland | 7 p.m. | |
| Dec. 10 | Saturday | at LSU | TBA | |
| Dec. 17 | Saturday | at Denver | 4 p.m. | |
| Dec. 19 | Monday | Fresno State | 7 p.m. | The Mtn. |
| Dec. 22 | Thursday | at Iowa | TBA | |
| Jan. 2 | Monday | at Fresno State | 8 p.m. |
Brad Edwards Says Mountain West Is Stronger Than Big East
After Utah, BYU and TCU bailed from the Mountain West, it appears that the conference is now stronger than the Big East. So says Brad Edwards of ESPN.
Edwards said that in his analysis of the numbers for the next qualifying period for the Bowl Championship Series, the Mountain West is ahead of the Big East (which TCU left for). The Big East currently is considered an automatic-qualifying conference while the Mountain West is not. Of course that has huge implications for the postseason as the Big East champion automatically qualifies for a BCS Bowl (even if they are ranked #30) while the Mountain West champion has to hope it is ranked in the final 12.
Edwards said that in his analysis of the numbers for the next qualifying period for the Bowl Championship Series, the Mountain West is ahead of the Big East (which TCU left for). The Big East currently is considered an automatic-qualifying conference while the Mountain West is not. Of course that has huge implications for the postseason as the Big East champion automatically qualifies for a BCS Bowl (even if they are ranked #30) while the Mountain West champion has to hope it is ranked in the final 12.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Matt Paradis Has Earned a Scholly!
Congrats to Matt Paradis, the latest in a long line of success stories of walk-on's at Boise State.
Way to go Matt!
Way to go Matt!
Blake Renaud Will Play This Year
As I had hoped, true freshman Blake Renaud will play this fall for Boise State. He joins Tyler Horn as the two Bronco freshmen that head coach Chris Petersen has named that will definitely play. Horn is coming off a greyshirt year.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Happy Birthday Kirby Moore!
Hoping he learned a lot in his redshirt year and has a banner season.
Happy b-day Kirby!
Happy b-day Kirby!
E/A Sports Gives Us a Glimpse Into the 2011 College Football Season
It's become tradition--once again I simulated 100 "seasons" in E/A Sports' popular software NCAA Football. These guys do amazing homework. I have no idea all the data that they plug into this software but it has to be pretty extensive. You don't have to look at their record of predicting Boise State's games to see their validity. I am reasonably sure that Las Vegas has similar software that tells the oddsmakers how the games are going to go. They have a reasonable idea how the point spread is going to go and even how many points are going to be scored.
So E/A is not doing anything that hasn't been done before. The difference now is that it is available to the public. Now can the software give a reasonable idea on the point spread? My experience is "no, it can't". At least with the data that is plugged into the system in July, I have found that if you look at six or so weeks of actual results and manipulate the player ratings to approximate the actual scores, sometimes the point spread gets a little closer to the actual game results the rest of the seasonwhen you simulate it 50 times or so. But please don't use this to gamble your money away. (Disclaimer: These results are run for fun only. The results do not in any way predict how any game this season is going to go.) There, that's out of the way...
Usually, I would save the suspense for the end. This time, I'm just going to put it out there--if Boise State loses a game this year, they have only themselves to blame. Coach Chris Petersen's team can be as good as they want to be, as hard as they have worked in the summer and the fall to improve, how serious they take each and every game, if they are able to keep their conditioning during the season (have players play the same amount each game so they are used to playing that length of time), and if they are able to put teams away.
E/A sports has missed four games in the last 10 years in predicting regular season games for Boise State. In three of those games (Washington and Hawai'i in 2007 and Nevada last year), Boise State lost games they were supposed to win. Read: If they don't play up to their potential, the chances of them not realizing the results below increase.
There are three teams that rose to the top of the nation in the 100 simulations: Oklahoma, Boise State and Ohio State. Those three were close enough that they are essentially even in the ones that the simulations say will win the BCS "National Championship". Oklahoma and Boise State each won it 22 times with Ohio State at 18. Boise State won it five times in the final eight simulations so keep in mind that the final results can be different depending on when you stop the simulations. Realistically, I would interpret the results to mean that each of these teams has approximately a one-in-five chance (20%) of winning that national title, at least on paper. We all know that there is an extreme bias against Boise State, especially in the South, and centered--hmm, right around the locations of the SEC schools. If the Broncos don't like that fact, and want to influence that, it seems they have some proving to do on September 3 and the Boise State team will have to do some convincing...
I can't vouch for E/A's accuracy on predicting other teams; they just seem to be able to predict Boise State's games. And the BCS Bowls and certainly the title game is influenced so much by humans that the teams that deserve to be there may not necessarily be. For instance, Boise State deserved to be in BCS Bowls in 2008 and again last year, but Ohio State was selected instead. So the above results can be taken with a grain of salt. More reliable will be each of those team's chances of going undefeated. The rest is up to the suits and the powers that be.
Just to report the results, there were 19 teams that won the mythical "national championship" in the 100 simulations. Others could in addition to those that follow--it just depends a lot on luck, money and the bowl committees. Stanford finished fourth with seven championships, Texas A&M surprised me at least with six while Alabama had five. The rest are: South Carolina and Nebraska (four each), Oklahoma State with two and Wisconsin, Central Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, Utah, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, TCU, Houston and Washington, which each one the title one time.
Of course, Boise State didn't win every BCS title game they were in. The simulations ended with Boise State being in the championship game in 39 of the 100--again the software shows a 39% probability of making it to the game but does not take into account the Mark May's of the world. And, as shown above, Boise State won 22 of those 39 games, or a little more than half. In seven of those appearances, Boise State had one loss--probably not realistic given again those Mark May's of the world.
The next matter to be discussed is undefeated seasons. Even though Boise State will be favored in every game, the season is wrought with potential pitfalls at nearly every turn. This isn't a WAC schedule--far from it. Most of the teams on the schedule could beat the Broncos if they don't bring their "A" game. Lest I remind the Broncos or their fans, Boise State was favored against Nevada last year too. And there are several teams on the schedule--Georgia, Nevada, Tulsa, TCU, San Diego State, Fresno State...that have a better chance of beating Boise State this year than Nevada did last year. Boise State finished the regular season unbeaten 40 times in the 100 simulations, meaning they have a 40% chance of not losing a game. I'll put out another disclaimer--Boise State was forecast to win every game last year and we all know what happened then. I will say that the 40% is extremely high, and certainly higher than any Boise State team has ever been associated with.
OK, I've shown you the probabilities of winning a national championship, making it to the game and being fortunate enough to go through the season undefeated. You're going to want to know about BCS Bowls, and the relationship to E/A simulation predictions and actual results is slightly more reliable than forecasts for national championship games, although you're still in someone else's hands and relying on so many human factors and emotional reactions. Fans of other teams--don't get all outraged for what you read next; I'm just reporting what the software says--blame E/A if you don't like it. Boise State made a BCS Bowl or BCS Championship in 88 of the 100 simulations. Before Boise State fans gulp and before other fans fall on the floor laughing, I'll also say that in three simulations they made one of the big five with two losses--not too realistic. So I subtract those three out and make that number 85.
However, one of the questions heading into the season is that given Boise State's tougher schedule, could they make it to a BCS Bowl with one loss? What I hear from the talking heads is that they can, if they beat TCU. In the simulations, most of the time that was the case--if Boise State beat TCU and finished with one loss, they were generally in but there were exceptions.
So wait, you're saying. Boise State was unbeaten 40 times, but made it to the final game 39 times, including seven with one loss. How can this be? Well, there were several times in which Boise State was undefeated and did not make it to the BCS final game--eight times in fact.
Out of the 88 BCS Bowl games, Boise State won 50 of them, or in the non-championship games, the Broncos won 28 of 49. Coach Petersen will tell you the most important ranking to him is the final one, and I have good news to report back to the coach. No matter what Boise State's season record, BCS Bowl game or not, national title game or not, win or lose in those games, the Broncos finished the season extremely high. In 81 of the 100 simulations, Boise State finished the year in the Top 10 and this is probably the most reliable of the statistics we've looked at so far.
So that leaves 12 other simulations in which Boise State did not go to a major bowl game. In 11 of those 12, the Broncos made a bowl, meaning essentially there is a 99% chance that Boise State will go to a bowl game this year. Of those 11 other bowl games, the Broncos won 10 of them.
We'll now look at season record results. I mentioned that Boise State finished unbeaten in 40 simulations. If you turn that around, it also means there is a 60% chance that the Broncos will stumble somewhere. It happened last year even though people didn't think there was any way they could possibly lose to Nevada and it can happen this year if Boise State doesn't take care of business. Boise State finished 13-0 26 times--again sometimes they made the championship game with one loss and sometimes they finished unbeaten and did not make the title game. The Broncos finished 12-1 49 times in the 100 simulations, 11-2 21 times, 10-3 three times and one disastrous finish of 7-5.
So let's see--40 unbeaten regular seasons, 26 perfect seasons, 49 times they finished with a loss and then 11 other results. That would average out to a little more than one loss a year.
Boise State enters an exciting first season in a brand new conference--the highly-regarded Mountain West. Given all the seniors in the lineup, you would expect that they would at least hold their own, and that proved to be the case. Boise State was fortunate enough to win the conference in 83 of the 100 simulations. In most of the other 17, TCU captured the title although San Diego State won two and Air Force won once.
I didn't run simulations for Boise State's opponents per se, but I did keep track of them. TCU finished the season in the Top 25 in 51 of the 100 simulations, far more than any other opponent. Nevada finished in the Top 25 in 30, followed by Air Force with 14, Tulsa with 11, Georgia and San Diego State in 10 each, Fresno State in 3 and Toledo and UNLV 1 each. Georgia finished the season with an average record of 7.2-5.4 (The tenths of a point mean that some years they made a bowl game (most years) and some they did not. The other average ending records for Boise State's opponents are: Toledo (7.1-5.1), Tulsa (7.4-5.3), Nevada (10.2-2.7), Fresno State (7.5-5.1), Colorado State (6.4-6.0), Air Force (9.8-3.0), UNLV (2.3-9.8), TCU (9.8-3.1), San Diego State (10.0-2.9), Wyoming (2.9-9.1), New Mexico (2.6-9.4)
EA also hands out national awards at the conclusion of each simulation and while these can't be looked upon as reliable, they are fun nevertheless and I will report what they showed. Doug Martin won the Heisman Trophy once. Kellen Moore won the Davey O'Brien Award eight times, Doug Martin won the Doak Walker award nine times and the Walter Camp award once, Tyler Shoemaker won the Biletnikoff Award three times, Kyle Efaw won the John Mackey award twice and Thomas Byrd won the Remington award once.
So that pretty much takes care of the peripheral results from the simulations. If you have any other questions, raise them in the comments below. I have all the data here and can answer any question you have. It's time to get on the actual "meat"--the results of the game simulations!
Boise State vs. Georgia
September 3
Boise State 87, Georgia 13
Average Score: Boise State 38, Georgia 22
I have found that to approach what E/A Sports builds into the software, one needs to do a minimum of 50 simulations and I prefer a minimum of 100. When there are 20 or less wins separating the two teams, that is when the chance for an upset is greatest.
As with all simulations the last nine years (can't believe this is the 10th year I've been doing this!), the most accurate predictor is the wins and losses and obviously the more it approaches 100%, the more accurate it is. However, if I can impress one thing upon you it is that nothing is guaranteed. Boise State was also favored to beat Nevada by a large margin and did not get it done. The Broncos rolled to a big lead then ran out of gas and it spoiled an otherwise perfect season. When you analyze the results below, remember that Georgia won in 13 games and they have incredible talent that can roll to a win over the Broncos, especially in their backyard. All of the 100 simulation results below are possible and no doubt hundreds more.
The way to interpret this is that Boise State has an 87% chance of beating Georgia but it doesn't mean they will. Many factors come into play (location, weather, crowd noise, momentum, breaks, penalties, injuries, not playing up to potential, etc.) Georgia's biggest win was 43-17 although most of their wins were by 10 points or less. Boise State's biggest win was 56-10 which they achieved twice. The other Boise State wins were by various margins. 15 Bronco wins were by 10 points or less. And keep in mind that in one simulation, Georgia won 43-17--that's a pretty wide range of scores. Again, the actual result could be any of the ones below or something completely different--the probability approaches the mean but it is by no means something you can count on (Don't take it to the bank, in other words.) Again, one doesn't have to go any further than the Nevada game last year to find a great example of a result proving the probability wrong.
Here are all of the 100 simulation results between these two teams:
54-17
51-14
14-16-
42-21
49-28
56-34
28-31-
56-28
30-23
45-14
41-38
28-14
45-35
35-10
52-24
53-21
49-16
56-10
42-17
35-22
43-17
37-25
31-26
35-30
42-14
20-31-
42-7
42-20
33-23
38-21
31-40-
36-31
49-14
34-16
40-14
31-32-
31-32-
34-31
43-24
34-18
42-28
42-14
45-24
45-6
33-35-
21-20
45-33
40-31
41-19
47-20
38-24
41-13
36-33
38-17
34-20
37-34
42-21
45-28
49-26
17-43-
42-23
31-14
49-22
31-7
24-31-
34-11
42-19
50-24
42-19
33-10
28-29-
52-28
35-27
45-26
41-29
45-38
50-13
20-23-
33-22
28-35-
38-16
41-20
31-14
27-20
35-23
28-35-
31-28
31-16
42-28
56-10
43-15
30-7
55-28
42-17
48-23
31-17
31-14
48-24
52-10
17-14
Boise State at Toledo
September 16
Boise State 96, Toledo 4
Average Score: Boise State 43, Toledo 16
Although Toledo only won four of these 100 simulations, the game will likely be closer than last year's contest in Boise. 16 of Boise State's 96 wins (or 1 in 6) were decided by 10 points or less. That's a pretty significant percentage and if the Rockets gain some early season momentum, the chances of this go up quite a bit. Boise State's biggest win was 56-0, but a very low chance that it will be this lopsided.
45-7
48-21
45-0
42-21
34-17
45-14
44-14
31-10
44-0
42-35
45-17
52-24
52-7
52-10
63-24
48-20
39-17
41-13
45-14
56-0
49-0
38-7
45-7
42-20
55-20
7-30-
33-13
31-7
60-7
27-15
42-14
42-10
56-28
48-21
30-20
48-17
40-23
59-10
35-7
33-3
33-29
42-20
59-17
43-23
41-10
46-14
43-14
35-26
44-14
38-10
34-6
35-24
36-25
27-31-
55-31
49-28
50-17
35-14
27-13
35-28
63-17
49-17
38-10
62-7
46-36
27-33-
42-7
55-14
38-17
49-21
44-13
38-14
47-10
31-6
49-17
49-17
42-14
48-14
45-21
35-20
57-29
37-13
38-21
37-0
41-10
49-35
31-6
32-10
34-7
52-14
38-35
38-14
44-27
45-7
55-17
49-7
56-24
48-28
36-10
52-10
Boise State vs.Tulsa
September 24
Boise State 90, Tulsa 10
Average Score: Boise State 39, Tulsa 21
Tulsa has a good shot at winning Conference-USA and anytime you're going up against a potential conference champion, you're going up against winners--the players believe they can win. Even though the game is in Bronco Stadium, note the 10 Tulsa wins. They have a 10% chance of winning and then you add in the fact that 22 of Boise State's wins are by 10 points or less and you have a 32% chance that the game will be tight. Other than TCU, Tulsa has the best chance of possibly ending Boise State's home streak. Boise State's biggest win of the 100 simulations was 45-0, though again there is a very low chance of that.
42-10
57-21
20-21-
42-19
31-21
45-17
41-33
26-16
35-10
45-16
38-21
53-22
42-16
45-28
13-35-
38-20
35-31
33-14
47-14
42-21
21-16
51-27
33-7
41-28
41-17
51-24
33-6
37-42-
27-6
43-23
28-21
38-20
42-7
35-21
47-37
56-25
24-27-
42-19
30-13
23-21
35-30
45-14
42-13
45-14
45-17
42-28
50-47
42-21
23-35-
45-31
38-17
49-10
42-3
34-26
48-25
45-24
31-10
38-15
52-17
31-17
56-27
20-26-
29-24
38-37
14-24-
28-21
55-21
48-13
45-21
41-15
38-37
38-28
38-21
38-17
31-16
52-26
35-18
45-20
45-3
45-31
28-21
24-14
38-31
40-32
38-20
45-0
42-7
42-21
52-10
41-13
35-25
30-28
38-17
41-14
42-11
28-31-
14-35-
31-24
27-34-
52-17
Boise State vs. Nevada
October 1
Boise State 91, Nevada 9
Average Score: Boise State 38, Nevada 20
This game is very similar to the one above. Nevada won in nine simulations, and Boise State won by 10 or less in 19 more, meaning a 28% chance of a tight game. The number sounds low, but it is indeed significant. Boise State's biggest win was 48-7 and that's if everything goes right for the Broncos and everything goes wrong for Nevada--slim chance of that.
41-3
35-10
51-24
40-31
31-14
49-21
38-17
47-21
33-35-
43-33
38-16
48-24
59-14
37-27
26-21
38-24
34-9
47-10
45-16
42-20
45-39
31-7
59-21
40-28
42-17
28-18
41-38
35-14
42-10
21-43-
27-33-
54-14
20-21-
34-10
41-7
38-20
21-35-
48-31
48-24
27-34-
57-3
48-7
44-22
44-10
38-28
21-9
32-15
30-18
40-0
22-13
45-17
37-17
34-43-
39-36
31-14
35-14
38-14
27-17
34-31
53-31
31-38-
52-29
42-17
30-23
55-24
38-32
24-14
48-30
28-38-
35-14
45-21
34-19
44-18
48-10
45-7
31-0
34-10
38-14
43-7
34-20
25-20
28-14
17-22-
34-0
39-21
48-35
38-21
35-23
41-14
43-16
34-28
44-19
31-14
45-14
35-7
25-24
42-10
41-17
52-35
31-17
Boise State at Fresno State
October 7
Boise State 94, Fresno State 6
Average Score: Boise State 39, Fresno State 19
17 of Boise State's 94 wins (or better than 1 in 6) were by 10 points or less. When you combine that with Fresno's six wins, you get 23 out of 100 simulations in which the game was close or went Fresno's way. Generally, Fresno State finished the season with a .500 record or slightly better. But they certainly have the talent to knock off Boise State at home, as the data shows below.
47-13
42-17
38-24
31-24
38-17
45-17
41-23
35-17
27-7
28-12
37-31
45-13
31-23
34-26
28-17
26-17
41-36
40-20
31-28
27-10
59-17
51-28
39-7
36-31
34-3
44-27
43-21
45-17
41-28
34-13
45-10
48-7
19-24-
45-31
28-31-
34-10
32-30
49-9
31-26
50-26
41-19
24-37-
56-28
38-14
40-17
49-7
42-27
45-20
34-7
38-17
45-26
28-10
38-17
49-7
31-10
38-21
35-21
51-28
23-20
49-24
55-28
44-7
48-20
49-10
42-25
34-7
38-27
41-22
47-17
38-7
38-13
33-17
35-28
24-16
55-28
49-13
38-20
29-22
49-0
35-3
18-23-
35-31
52-14
24-34-
45-17
42-56-
56-21
34-13
49-24
49-21
49-19
29-24
45-10
38-7
44-13
38-6
48-14
28-7
17-14
49-7
Boise State at Colorado State
October 15
Boise State 100, Colorado State 0
Average Score: Boise State 42, Colorado State 12
Although Colorado State wasn't able to win any of the simulations, don't let that fool you. They too are going to hover around .500 and you're not in the WAC any more, Boise State. The Rams look to be improved with a good chance at a bowl.
55-14
51-13
24-10
34-3
45-14
49-7
38-13
27-10
42-20
52-6
49-17
21-20
41-14
38-30
47-3
42-18
49-28
45-7
38-25
38-20
52-0
34-16
38-7
35-14
42-10
48-14
40-17
59-7
41-3
34-13
49-10
59-6
41-3
41-10
19-6
28-20
35-10
52-14
35-17
38-20
38-3
59-14
38-7
56-10
29-7
31-0
45-6
42-14
41-10
38-31
49-27
49-20
34-0
38-10
36-7
37-19
44-7
52-21
34-6
52-0
48-20
56-18
31-3
31-0
38-7
45-7
52-0
42-9
45-0
31-14
44-3
52-14
45-10
26-17
34-14
44-21
41-3
42-20
48-7
38-0
45-7
52-10
45-20
49-0
38-31
52-10
41-7
59-6
42-14
38-21
45-24
37-6
34-33
34-6
57-10
42-21
66-3
38-6
40-20
59-6
Boise State vs. Air Force
October 22
Boise State 97, Air Force 3
Average Score: Boise State 37, Air Force 17
This was a surprising result to me, as heading into the season, I saw this as one of Boise State's toughest games. And it still might be. 21 of the Bronco wins were by 10 points or less so depending on performance that day, the game could be close.
50-27
49-14
25-24
41-3
35-34
27-17
41-13
42-28
45-20
41-7
52-7
42-10
31-28
17-16
31-7
38-23
42-12
42-24
38-14
45-7
42-18
40-21
42-17
23-21
38-26
40-17
49-20
38-10
30-24
38-0
38-14
35-10
31-14
34-0
23-16
45-10
14-27-
32-31
41-10
27-21
30-35-
56-0
37-17
40-17
51-13
42-14
44-10
30-0
42-24
42-22
35-14
44-17
45-17
38-7
48-33
42-38
37-16
42-7
43-17
28-0
34-24
28-20
41-10
38-3
35-14
45-21
45-26
34-14
41-10
34-13
38-7
49-14
35-3
28-14
33-20
44-28
38-28
38-22
45-3
38-17
37-6
45-22
42-35
21-17
35-16
24-27-
50-6
28-16
17-14
52-3
31-24
27-22
28-21
45-21
41-0
45-24
42-21
31-21
34-20
Boise State at UNLV
November 5
Boise State 100, UNLV 0
Average Score: Boise State 49, UNLV 7
Unless early-season results are drastically different for both teams than what the simulations show, E/A's software predicts this to be one of the mismatches.
49-0
45-7
52-7
36-0
38-7
55-3
56-3
54-0
45-10
31-10
31-7
31-3
52-3
48-0
45-13
59-20
48-7
62-9
42-10
49-17
52-10
61-10
46-7
42-7
56-3
52-0
52-10
48-3
56-3
34-17
38-0
49-7
34-0
48-24
55-10
54-3
41-14
34-0
52-7
44-13
49-10
42-10
52-13
49-0
45-0
48-3
52-17
50-9
34-10
45-14
44-7
55-3
55-3
51-7
42-14
55-12
41-10
56-10
41-7
52-3
62-0
56-0
62-7
35-0
56-10
35-21
70-7
56-3
48-10
50-0
42-7
45-17
49-3
48-0
48-18
68-0
66-0
49-24
64-17
45-7
45-3
44-14
55-17
49-0
45-14
55-0
45-0
51-14
62-3
48-7
45-7
31-3
42-0
52-13
52-10
38-17
52-13
42-7
45-3
65-6
Boise State vs. TCU
November 12
Boise State 77, TCU 23
Average Score: Boise State 37, TCU 24
On average, this was the tightest game of the year and TCU logged more wins (23) than any other Bronco opponent on the schedule. The biggest surprise was the score--the average score and indeed most of the scores reflect more of a 2003-style game than the last two bowl games (2008 and 2009) between these two great teams.
41-16
49-17
35-14
24-28-
20-17
35-23
31-24
38-31
49-28
31-17
42-6
31-24
31-10
45-24
10-31-
42-30
49-42
35-31
29-31-
28-36-
32-28
24-10
45-38
40-44-
31-28
48-20
24-10
34-24
26-35-
41-10
31-23
42-14
28-13
29-10
37-24
38-25
22-30-
41-10
34-41-
42-23
42-17
38-33
52-38
49-21
22-25-
52-16
27-35-
31-17
38-45-
43-10
49-17
45-27
28-14
35-31
41-19
17-24-
45-28
31-36-
24-25-
52-42
31-16
45-14
45-17
40-14
10-41-
20-39-
38-24
44-17
42-14
35-37-
28-14
36-39-
49-19
49-18
35-39-
41-19
34-47-
21-38-
48-14
41-34
44-21
41-31
38-21
34-13
41-19
42-23
38-45-
49-13
45-46-
35-18
52-17
56-35
35-29
42-28
44-28
45-31
49-34
41-25
38-28
24-17
Boise State at San Diego State
November 19
Boise State 94, San Diego State 6
Average Score: Boise State 41, San Diego State 20
This type of result would shock me, frankly. I think San Diego State has a fairly good shot at winning this game and I was surprised they only won six times. Something has to give--either I'm way off or the software is way off. But it's good to be concerned and this is a dangerous game in San Diego. 20 of Boise State's wins were by 10 points or less.
59-22
38-28
45-13
35-17
40-21
44-20
42-35
38-20
33-21
41-14
42-35
52-24
28-9
48-14
24-31-
37-23
47-10
45-10
39-22
35-26
36-47-
45-31
31-24
34-24
41-33
49-28
56-34
48-14
49-0
52-28
47-10
28-25
39-37
41-20
38-31
44-38
17-27-
30-20
29-34-
38-28
37-7
38-6
48-20
52-21
42-17
38-7
56-14
52-21
49-28
41-22
45-14
21-17
48-38
34-22
54-14
38-3
45-23
28-38-
30-27
62-25
48-17
45-41
35-13
49-3
24-17
45-17
38-3
27-21
21-3
43-10
35-0
35-38-
48-17
38-33
45-14
24-17
37-10
31-17
42-24
48-24
49-35
41-38
49-16
41-17
27-17
37-14
52-11
35-21
44-7
35-7
31-17
48-21
42-14
47-0
31-3
44-3
38-3
55-16
58-0
49-21
Boise State vs. Wyoming
November 26
Boise State 100, Wyoming 0
Average Score: Boise State 48, Wyoming 6
Although the Mountain West bottom teams are better than the WAC, this is one that was decidedly in Boise State's favor. In several simulations, Wyoming did not score but a touchdown proved to be about the average.
52-0
56-3
52-7
38-3
59-10
48-3
56-0
52-9
56-0
41-10
47-7
66-0
49-0
47-3
26-9
49-0
42-3
49-19
34-0
57-7
70-7
34-7
49-13
42-14
45-14
47-0
59-7
42-0
61-6
52-13
35-3
41-0
48-6
48-21
39-10
52-0
39-3
59-0
35-0
45-0
58-3
59-24
49-0
45-3
48-3
56-0
52-6
52-0
56-7
51-0
55-7
45-3
55-7
69-10
62-3
52-7
40-10
48-0
59-3
44-7
56-10
51-0
59-3
59-10
55-3
51-17
41-20
41-0
56-3
42-7
45-3
49-26
55-17
43-6
63-0
38-7
51-7
41-3
48-10
49-7
45-3
50-0
44-0
32-0
70-0
49-0
41-7
56-6
56-0
55-7
31-17
48-21
42-14
47-0
31-3
44-3
38-3
55-16
58-0
Boise State vs. New Mexico
December 3
Boise State 100, New Mexico 0
Average Score: Boise State 47, New Mexico 6
This contest went similar to the Wyoming game. Boise State closes the season with the school who gave us Rocky Long.
38-0
48-3
37-7
44-3
47-7
47-7
48-3
38-9
47-0
45-6
56-6
46-13
51-7
68-7
59-3
56-14
49-3
58-0
42-7
48-3
61-3
58-7
38-3
35-10
48-14
36-3
41-6
59-0
34-0
48-0
52-7
41-7
56-10
55-3
35-7
56-0
61-3
41-3
49-17
31-16
48-10
49-14
41-3
45-7
45-6
43-0
42-3
40-10
45-7
38-3
42-7
45-9
59-3
51-7
59-10
34-10
51-0
55-10
48-10
63-13
38-0
52-0
59-7
48-3
49-7
48-0
49-13
48-3
55-3
38-28
44-10
49-7
49-3
49-6
31-9
42-7
42-0
42-0
41-0
41-7
46-10
46-0
45-3
42-6
41-7
35-7
35-0
56-7
53-0
52-21
49-7
49-7
66-3
48-6
42-7
52-7
44-0
48-3
52-3
45-10
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