Boise State will likely get anywhere from 5-7 points in softball. That is one of the sports that splits awarded points based on the regular season and postseason. In other words, the regular season champion gets 3.5 points, second place gets you 3 points, third is worth 2.5, etc. The same is true for the postseason except there will be several ties for position. If two teams tie for fifth, for example, in the posteason, they will share the postseason points for fifth and sixth. In this example, each team will get 1.25 points (2.5 divided by 2). There are seven teams that participate in softball so 7 is the maximum that can be earned. The Broncos have clinched at least a tie for third in the regular season but obviously they want more than that. If they can capture the regular season championship, they get some byes and advantageous postseason scheduling that would make it hard to not score at least 2 points in the softball championship.
Currently, I am projecting a tie for the regular season title with New Mexico State (worth 3.25 points) and a second-place finish in the tournament, worth 3 points. This is because their series with NM State is away from home and I am giving the benefit of the doubt to the home team to win 2 of 3. Similarly, the postseason championship is hosted by Fresno State and I am giving the advantage to the Bulldogs until someone topples them. Thus, the total of 6.25 for Boise State in softball. If this scenario occurs, Fresno State would get third in the regular season and first in the postseason for a total of 6 points, one less than the maximum.
If this hypothetical proves correct, Fresno State would lose one point from their maximum and the new magic number would be 96. Boise State would be up to 89.50 and need 5.5 points from its track teams to clinch the Cup. The Bronco men's team is currently seeded third but has some upside. I don't see them finishing worse than third and, as my article earlier in the week showed, they are one decathlete away from winning the title. The women's team is currently seeded last so they have nowhere to go but up. What these projections show is that Boise State must do better than projected to clinch the Cup outright. If they are unable to do so, they must rely on Fresno State not winning all four remaining championships. I show that to be the case, but Fresno knows what it has to do as well, and you can bet the message has been passed on to its coaches and student-athletes.
The outdoor track championships get started next Tuesday in Honolulu with the softball tournament getting underway next Wednesday in Fresno. As you have come to see, you can get up-to-the-minute results on both of those events first on this blog.
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