With Fresno State's loss to Idaho tonight, Boise State has clinched the #2 seed in the WAC. You will see below there is no possible scenario in which the Broncos are not #2.
Here's the rationale. We know if Boise State is fortunate enough to win Saturday they will be #2. Now there is no scenario in which the Broncos are not the #2 seed. Since Idaho won, the only two-way tie possible is between Idaho and Boise State. If Boise State finishes tied with Idaho, they win the tie-breaker with a sweep of the Vandals. If it is a three-way tie between Boise State, New Mexico State and Idaho, Boise State and New Mexico State would emerge with 3-1 records against the other two (both swept Idaho). Boise State gets the higher seed over New Mexico State because of the Fresno State sweep (NM State split with Fresno State.) Every three or four-way tie now has to involve both Boise State and Idaho.
If the three-way tie is between Boise State, Idaho and Hawai'i, Boise State wins that by virtue of a 3-1 record over the other two (Idaho would be 2-2 and Hawai'i 1-3.) If the three-way tie is between Boise State, Idaho and Nevada, same thing. The only four-way ties possible are between Boise State, Idaho, Hawai'i and Nevada and between Boise State, New Mexico State, Idaho and Hawai'i. In the first case, Boise State and Idaho would emerge from the four-way tie with 4-2 records against the other three and Boise State swept the Vandals so would get #2. In the latter case, Boise State and New Mexico State would emerge and the Broncos would earn the nod because of a sweep over Fresno State.
The conference standings look like this:
1. Utah State 14-1
2. Boise State 9-6
3. Idaho 9-7
4. New Mexico State 8-7
4. Hawai'i 8-7
4. Nevada 8-7
7. Fresno State 5-10
7. San Jose State 5-10
9. Louisiana Tech 2-13
Here is what we already know. Utah State has won the regular season championship, will be the #1 seed and will receive a first-round bye for the WAC Tournament in Las Vegas. Boise State has clinched the #2 seed and will also receive a first-round bye. With tonight's action, we also know that Idaho will finish either #3 or #4. New Mexico State could finish anywhere betwee 3 and 6 while Hawai'i and Nevada will each be either fourth, fifth or sixth. San Jose State and Fresno State will be either sixth or seventh. Louisiana Tech at 2-12 will not make the eight-team field. I
So it's very helpful to know what happens to the teams in different scenarios using the league's tie-breaker procedures. The first tie-breaker to be applied is head-to-head games if two teams are tied or, in the case of three or more teams (record against the other tied teams). So let's start there.
Boise State owns a tie-breaker over Idaho with a season sweep over the Vandals.
New Mexico State owns a tie-breaker over Idaho with a season sweep.
Idaho owns a tie-breaker over Hawai'i with two wins.
Idaho owns the tie-breaker with Nevada with a season sweep over the Wolf Pack.
The next tie-breaker is the comparison of the teams against the rest of the conference, beginning at the top of the standings and continuing down until the tie is decided. If, after the teams are still tied after going through that comparison, the team's RPI is used to break the tie.
I will mention that Idaho has good tie-breaker possibilities because of sweeps over Fresno State, Nevada and Hawai'i. The only teams that beat Idaho in head-to-head tiebreakers are Boise State and New Mexico State because both those teams swept the Vandals.
Hawai'i is 7-7 and can finish in that four-way tie for second. For now, I'll look at the head-to-head possibilities for the Warriors.
In the balanced WAC this season, that is about all we know concerning head-to-head possibilities. It is almost certain that there will be at least one tie that involves three or more teams. In that case, the record against the other tied teams comes into play. Let's look at that further.
There exists a chance that four teams could tie for second place. Those would be Boise State, New Mexico State, Idaho and Hawai'i. Again the first tiebreaker is record against the other tied teams. For this scenario to occur, Boise State would have to lose to San Jose State, New Mexico State would have beat Nevada and Hawai'i would have to beat Fresno State. The first tiebreaker would be a team's record against the other three teams.
Boise State split with New Mexico State and Hawai'i and swept Idaho. The Broncos are 4-2 against the other three teams. New Mexico State split with Boise State and Hawai'i and swept Idaho. The Aggies would also be 4-2. Idaho split with Hawai'i and was swept by the other two teams so would be eliminated. Hawai'i split with the other three teams and would be 3-3. The tie between Boise State and New Mexico State cannot be broken head-to-head so we would use the next tiebreaker that starts with #1 Utah State. I
You can see that it gets quite complicated. We will know much more after Wednesday night and especially after Thursday night's games. For now, I'll just present the different scenarios below that will provide easy-to-follow certainties.
1. Boise State beats San Jose State
New Mexico State beats Nevada
Hawai'i beats Fresno State
Boise State finishes second. There would be a three-way tie between New Mexico State, Idaho and Hawai'i for third. New Mexico State and Idaho would have 3-1 records against the other two. The Aggies would receive the #3 seed with a sweep over Idaho, Idaho would be #4 and Hawai'i the 5-seed. Nevada would be sixth. San Jose State would be awarded #7 with a split against Idaho and Fresno State would be #8.
2. Boise State beats San Jose State
New Mexico State beats Nevada
Hawai'i loses to Fresno State
Boise State finishes second. New Mexico State would earn the three seed with a sweep over Idaho and the Vandals would be fourth. Hawai'i would be awarded the #5 seed with a sweep over Fresno State and Nevada would be sixth. San Jose State would be seeded #7 and Fresno State #8.
3. Boise State beats San Jose State
New Mexico State loses to Nevada
Hawai'i beats Fresno State
Boise State finishes second. There would be a three-way tie between Idaho, Hawai'i and Nevada. Idaho would earn the #3 seed with sweeps over both. Hawai'i would get the #4 seed with a sweep over Fresno State and Nevada would be fifth. New Mexico State would be the sixth seed, San Jose State would be #7 because of a split with Idaho and Fresno State would be the eight seed.
4. Boise State beats San Jose State
New Mexico State loses to Nevada
Hawai'i loses to Fresno State
Boise State finishes second and Idaho would tie with Nevada. Idaho would be seeded third because of a sweep over Nevada and Nevada would be fourth. New Mexico State would get #5 because of a sweep over Idaho and Hawai'i would be #6, Fresno State #7 and San Jose State #8.
5. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State beats Nevada
Hawai'i loses to Fresno State
Boise State, New Mexico State and Idaho would tie for second. Boise State and New Mexico State would have 3-1 records against the other two teams while Idaho would be 0-4. Boise State would win the tiebreaker with a sweep of Fresno State and would be seeded second. New Mexico State would receive the third seed and the Vandals would be #4. Nevada would be awarded the fifth seed with a split against Idaho and Hawai'i would be #6. San Jose State would be the #7 seed because of a split with Idaho and Fresno State would be #8.
6. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State loses to Nevada
Hawai'i beats Fresno State
There would be a four-way tie for second place between Boise State, Idaho, Hawai'i and Nevada. Boise State and Idaho would each have 4-2 records against the other three teams while Hawai'i and Nevada would be 2-4. Boise State would be awarded second with a sweep over the Vandals and Idaho would be #3. Hawai'i would earn the #4 seed with a sweep over Fresno State and Nevada would be fifth. New Mexico State would be the sixth seed, followed by San Jose State and Fresno State.
7. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State loses to Nevada
Hawai'i loses to Fresno State
There would be a three-way tie for second between Boise State, Idaho and Nevada. Boise State would have a 3-1 record against the other two, Idaho would be 2-2 and Nevada 1-3. Boise State would be the #2 seed. Idaho would be awarded #3 with a sweep over Nevada and Nevada would be #4. New Mexico State would be awarded fifth-seed because they split with Idaho and Hawai'i was swept by Idaho. Hawai'i would be seeded sixth. The tie between San Jose State and Fresno State would be decided by RPI since the two teams split and they have the exact record against every other WAC team.
8. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State beats NevadaHawai'i beats Fresno State
There would be a four-way tie for second between Boise State, New Mexico State, Idaho and Hawai'i. Boise State and New Mexico State would have 4-2 records against the other three teams in the tie. Idaho would be 2-4 and Hawai'i would be 2-4. Boise State would be seeded second with a sweep of Fresno State and New Mexico State would be third. Idaho would be awarded fourth with a sweep over Hawai'i and the Warriors would be fifth. Nevada would be sixth, San Jose State seventh and Fresno State eighth.
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