Boise State is making news with its longest winning streak since Bobby Dye was head coach (eight games), but Utah State has won its last seven after a stumble against Idaho. The Aggies are third in the nation in wins behind only Kansas and San Diego State (31 each), while USU is one of five teams with three or fewer losses (San Diego State and Kansas are both 31-2, Ohio State is 30-2 and Brigham Young is 30-3).
Transfer Brokeith Pane, however, has perhaps been the key to the Aggies' success. Pane is averaging 11.4 points and 3.4 assists and is especially adept at feeding open teammates under the basket in traffic. Pane, like most of the Aggie players, can burn you from the free-throw line (78.6%). Brady Jardine is the other forward, averaging 7.7 points and 7.1 rebounds. What Wesley doesn't clean off the boards, Jardine will. He also is shooting at a 54.2% clip. The guards are Brian Green (10.6 ppg) and Pooh Williams (8.6). Green is a long-range bomber that presents Boise State with considerable problems should they double Wesley. Green is money from three-point range, shooting an unbelievable 46.5%, and he is also a 73.6% free-throw shooter. Williams, although not a prolific scorer, is the team's best free-thrw shooter at 81.5%.
So stopping the Aggies is tough. You cannot let Wesley continue to pile up points inside. Boise State really does not have the tough inside presence to deal with him. And should they double him, as hinted above, you risk giving up three with Green. Any double-teaming will have to be carefully planned so as not to leave Green (with his three-point shooting), Pane (with his inside passing) or Jardine (who will be ready for a dunk underneath the basket) open. That leaves Pooh Williams and if Utah State does their spacing properly, Williams will spot up on the side opposite Wesley so he can practically drive for a layup.
Utah State's defense can stymie the best basketball teams. Coach Stew Morrill's strategy is for his team to collapse inside the key. The Aggies essentially dare you to shoot the three-ball. If you're hot, you have a chance, but if you're not it's going to be a rout. In the first game between Utah State and Boise State this season, the Aggies jumped out to a 15-2 lead en route to a 77-49 blowout. USU finished the game hitting 64% of its shots and the #17 team in the nation simply isn't going to lose when they do that. They also held La'Shard Anderson scoreless. That fact alone indicates the Broncos will do much better than game one; even the most diehard Aggie fan would concede that Anderson will get his points tonight. Just how many and how well Anderson is able to get his mates involved will be the story of the game.
If you think it's easy to beat Utah State, you weren't watching the other WAC semifinal game against San Jose State. The Spartans played well but still lost by four. In that game, Utah State shot just 37% from the field and was out-rebounded. Utah State rarely shoots that bad and rarely gets beaten on the boards. They did and still won. One of the keys to victory was that the Aggies held Adrian Oliver, the nation's third-leading scorer at 24.6 points a game, to 16 points and 6-of-19 shooting. Oliver's teammates were able to do more, but not enough to win.
Clearly, Boise State has more offensive weapons than the Spartans. And they will all need to be at the top of their game if they have a prayer of pulling off the upset. As I said in this blog last night, Anderson wont be able to have free reins up and down the court against Utah State as he did last night. If he heads into the key, he will find three or four Aggies to meet him. He can dish to teammates, but more often than not those open teammates will be 20 feet from the basket instead of two.
So Jeff Eloriaga, Paul Noonan and Robert Arnold will have to be launching highly-accurate bombs for Boise State to be effective. And the Broncos will have to take excellent care of the basketball. In the Logan meeting, the Aggies swiped nine balls from the usually protective Broncos. Boise State doesn't have to win the battle of the boards, but it must be close. And on the Wesley double-teams, the Bronco guards will have to cover Green and the other three-point shooters and Arnold, Daequon Montreal and Ryan Watkins will have to know where their men are inside.
When you have two teams as hot as Boise State and Utah State meeting in the conference championship, you're almost assured a good game. The excitement begins at 8 p.m. Mountain Time tonight and will be televised live on ESPN2.
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