The conference standings look like this after last night's action:
1. Utah State 13-1
2. Boise State 9-6
3. New Mexico State 8-6
4. Idaho 8-7
5. Hawai'i 7-7
5. Nevada 7-7
7. Fresno State 5-9
7. San Jose State 5-9
9. Louisiana Tech 2-12
Here is what we already know. Utah State has won the regular season championship, will be the #1 seed and will receive a first-round bye for the WAC Tournament in Las Vegas. Louisiana Tech at 2-12 will not make the eight-team field. Boise State can finish no worse than third and Idaho & New Mexico State can finish no worse than sixth. In a year in which the #2-8 teams are as balanced as ever in recent memory, that is about all we know at this point.
So it's very helpful to know what happens to the teams in different scenarios using the league's tie-breaker procedures. The first tie-breaker to be applied is head-to-head games if two teams are tied or, in the case of three or more teams (record against the other tied teams). So let's start there.
Boise State owns a tie-breaker over Idaho with a season sweep over the Vandals.
New Mexico State owns a tie-breaker over Idaho with a season sweep.
Idaho owns a tie-breaker over Hawai'i with two wins.
Idaho owns the tie-breaker with Nevada with a season sweep over the Wolf Pack.
The next tie-breaker is the comparison of the teams against the rest of the conference, beginning at the top of the standings and continuing down until the tie is decided. If, after the teams are still tied after going through that comparison, the team's RPI is used to break the tie.
Boise State at 9-6 can finish no worse than third with a victory next Saturday over San Jose State. If New Mexico State loses to either Utah State on Wednesday or to Nevada next Saturday, the Broncos clinch second place. If both teams win out, they will tie for second. Since the two teams split this season, the next tie-breaker is the comparison of the teams against #1 Utah State is the next tie-breaker. New Mexico State would be seeded second because they would have a win over Utah State (the #1 seed) in that scenario. But if New Mexico State loses to the other Aggies, Boise State is in control. The two teams would have the exact record against other WAC teams except Fresno State and Louisiana Tech. Boise State swept Fresno State while New Mexico State swept Louisiana Tech. Since Fresno will finish the year higher, that is the deciding factor. To sum up, New Mexico State owns the tiebreaker over Boise State if they beat Utah State but if they lose, Boise State owns the tiebreaker with a sweep over Fresno State. There are other possibilities but I'll put those at the end of this story for reference and hope that we don't have to go there.
New Mexico State can finish second by defeating both Utah State on Wednesday and Nevada next Saturday. As mentioned above, if Boise State beats San Jose State next Saturday and New Mexico State loses one of their two games, the best the Aggies can finish is third.
Idaho is 8-7 and can clinch at least fourth place with a win in Moscow Thursday night over Fresno State. If New Mexico State loses a game, there are all kinds of possibilities, including a possible four-way tie for second place, that I'll address later. I will mention that Idaho has good tie-breaker possibilities because of sweeps over both Fresno State and Hawai'i.
Hawai'i is 7-7 and can finish in that four-way tie for second. For now, I'll look at the head-to-head possibilities for the Warriors. They are tied with Fresno State for fifth. The two teams play next Saturday so that game will break the tie if they are still tied at that point. If Hawai'i loses to San Jose State but beats Fresno State, Hawai'i would win a tie-breaker with the Bulldogs. If, however, Hawai'i beats San Jose State Thursday night and Fresno State loses to Idaho then beats Hawai'i, Fresno and Hawai'i will still be tied. In that scenario, the teams would still be tied because they would have a split this season.
In the balanced WAC this season, that is about all we know concerning head-to-head possibilities. It is almost certain that there will be at least one tie that involves three or more teams. In that case, the record against the other tied teams comes into play. Let's look at that further.
There exists a chance that four teams could tie for second place. Those would be Boise State, New Mexico State, Idaho and Hawai'i. Again the first tiebreaker is record against the other tied teams. For this scenario to occur, Boise State would have to lose to San Jose State, New Mexico State would have to split its two games, Idaho would have to beat Fresno State and Hawai'i would have to beat both San Jose State and Fresno State. The first tiebreaker would be a team's record against the other three teams.
Boise State split with New Mexico State and Hawai'i and swept Idaho. The Broncos are 4-2 against the other three teams. New Mexico State split with Boise State and Hawai'i and swept Idaho. The Aggies would also be 4-2. Idaho split with Hawai'i and was swept by the other two teams so would be eliminated. Hawai'i split with the other three teams and would be 3-3. The tie between Boise State and New Mexico State cannot be broken head-to-head so we would use the next tiebreaker that starts with #1 Utah State. If New Mexico State beats Utah State Wednesday night, they would own the tiebreaker since Boise State was swept by Utah State. If, however, USU beats New Mexico State, Boise State would own the tiebreaker by virtue of a sweep over Idaho.
You can see that it gets quite complicated. We will know much more after Wednesday night and especially after Thursday night's games. For now, I'll just present the different scenarios below that will provide easy-to-follow certainties.
1. Boise State beats San Jose State
New Mexico State loses a game
Boise State finishes second
2. Boise State beats San Jose State
New Mexico State beats Utah State and Nevada
New Mexico State finishes second because of win over Utah State; Boise State finishes third.
3. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State loses to Utah State but beats Nevada
Idaho loses to Fresno State
Hawai'i and Nevada each lose one game next week
Boise State would be awarded second with a sweep over Fresno State and New Mexico State would be seeded third. Idaho would be fourth with sweeps over both Hawai'i and Nevada, Nevada would be fifth with a sweep over Louisiana Tech and Hawai'i would be seeded sixth.
4. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State loses to Utah State but beats Nevada
Idaho loses to Fresno State
Hawai'i beats both San Jose State and Fresno State
Nevada beats Louisiana Tech
Boise State would be awarded second place with a sweep over Fresno State and New Mexico State would be #3. Hawai'i would be fourth, Idaho fifth with a sweep of Nevada and Nevada would be sixth. San Jose State would be awarded #7 because they split with Hawai'i and Fresno State would have two losses to Hawai'i.
5. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State loses to Utah State but beats Nevada
Idaho loses to Fresno State
Hawai'i beats both San Jose State and Fresno State
Nevada loses to Louisiana Tech
Boise State would be awarded second place with a sweep over Fresno State and New Mexico State would be #3, Hawai'i would be fourth, Idaho fifth and Nevada would be sixth. The tie between Fresno State and San Jose State would be resolved by RPI (the two teams split and the two would have done exactly the same against every WAC team.)
6. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State loses to Utah State but beats Nevada
Idaho loses to Fresno State
Hawai'i loses to San Jose State and Fresno State
Nevada beats Louisiana Tech
Boise State would be awarded second place with a sweep over Fresno State and New Mexico State would be #3. Idaho would be awarded fourth with a sweep over Nevada and Nevada would be fifth. There would be a three-way tie for sixth--Hawai'i would be eliminated from that tie-breaker due to being swept by Idaho and would be seeded eighth. Fresno State would be seeded sixth with a sweep over Hawai'i and San Jose State would be seeded seventh.
7. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State loses to Utah State but beats Nevada
Idaho loses to Fresno State
Hawai'i loses to San Jose State and Fresno State
Nevada loses to Louisiana Tech
Boise State would be awarded second-seed with a sweep over Fresno State. New Mexico State would be third and Idaho fourth. There would be a four-way tie for fifth--Fresno State would be seeded fifth with a sweep over Hawai'i. San Jose State would be seeded sixth with a sweep over Louisiana Tech. The Hawai'i-Nevada tie would be decided by RPI, since the two split and would have the exact record against every WAC team.
8. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State loses to both Utah State and Nevada
Idaho beats Fresno State
Nevada beats Louisiana Tech
Hawai'i beats San Jose State and Fresno State
There would be a four-way tie for second place between Boise State, Idaho, Hawai'i and Nevada. Idaho would be awarded second with sweeps over both Hawai'i and Nevada. Boise State would then be awarded third seed with a sweep over Idaho. Nevada would be seeded fourth with a sweep over New Mexico State and Hawai'i would be #5. New Mexico State would be the #6 seed, San Jose State #7 and Fresno State #8.
9. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State loses to both Utah State and Nevada
Idaho beats Fresno State
Nevada loses to Louisiana Tech
Hawai'i beats San Jose State and Fresno State
There would be a three-way tie for second place between Boise State, Idaho and Hawai'i. Boise State would be 3-1 against the other two, Idaho would be 2-2 and Hawai'i 0-4. Boise State would be seeded second, Idaho would be #3 due to a sweep over Hawai'i and Hawai'i would be seeded fourth. Nevada would be #5 with a sweep over New Mexico State and New Mexico State would be #6, San Jose State #7 and Fresno State #8.
10. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State loses to both Utah State and Nevada
Idaho beats Fresno State
Nevada beats Louisiana Tech
Hawai'i loses to San Jose State but beats Fresno State
There would be a three-way tie for second between Boise State, Idaho and Nevada. Boise State would have a 3-1 record against the other two, Idaho would be 2-2 and Nevada 1-3. Boise State would be the #2 seed. Idaho would be awarded #3 with a sweep over Nevada and Nevada would be #4. New Mexico State would be awarded fifth-seed because they split with Idaho and Hawai'i was swept by Idaho. Hawai'i would be seeded sixth, San Jose State would be seeded seventh and Fresno State #8.
11. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State loses to both Utah State and Nevada
Idaho beats Fresno State
Nevada beats Louisiana Tech
Hawai'i beats San Jose State but loses to Fresno State
There would be a three-way tie for second between Boise State, Idaho and Nevada. Boise State would have a 3-1 record against the other two, Idaho would be 2-2 and Nevada 1-3. Boise State would be the #2 seed. Idaho would be awarded #3 with a sweep over Nevada and Nevada would be #4. New Mexico State would be awarded fifth-seed because they split with Idaho and Hawai'i was swept by Idaho. Hawai'i would be seeded sixth. The tie between San Jose State and Fresno State would be decided by RPI since the two teams split and they have the exact record against every other WAC team.
12. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State loses to Utah State but beats NevadaIdaho beats Fresno State
Hawai'i beats San Jose State and Fresno State
Nevada beats Louisiana Tech
There would be a four-way tie for second between Boise State, New Mexico State, Idaho and Hawai'i. Boise State and New Mexico State would have 4-2 records against the other three teams in the tie. Idaho would be 2-4 and Hawai'i would be 2-4. Boise State would be seeded second with a sweep of Fresno State and New Mexico State would be third. Idaho would be awarded fourth with a sweep over Hawai'i and the Warriors would be fifth. Nevada would be sixth, San Jose State seventh and Fresno State eighth.
13. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State beats both Utah State and Nevada
Idaho beats Fresno State
Hawai'i loses to San Jose State but beats Fresno State
Nevada beats Louisiana Tech
New Mexico State would be second with a 10-6 record. Boise State and Idaho would be tied for third. Boise State would be awarded second with a sweep over Idaho and Idaho would be fourth. Hawai'i would be awarded fifth with a sweep over Fresno State, Nevada would be sixth, San Jose State seventh and Fresno State eighth.
There would be a four-way tie for second between Boise State, New Mexico State, Idaho and Hawai'i. Boise State and New Mexico State would have 4-2 records against the other three teams in the tie. Idaho would be 2-4 and Hawai'i would be 2-4. Boise State would be seeded second with a sweep of Fresno State and New Mexico State would be third. Idaho would be awarded fourth with a sweep over Hawai'i and the Warriors would be fifth. Nevada would be sixth, San Jose State seventh and Fresno State eighth.
13. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State beats both Utah State and Nevada
Idaho beats Fresno State
Hawai'i loses to San Jose State but beats Fresno State
Nevada beats Louisiana Tech
New Mexico State would be second with a 10-6 record. Boise State and Idaho would be tied for third. Boise State would be awarded second with a sweep over Idaho and Idaho would be fourth. Hawai'i would be awarded fifth with a sweep over Fresno State, Nevada would be sixth, San Jose State seventh and Fresno State eighth.
14. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State beats both Utah State and Nevada
Idaho beats Fresno State
Hawai'i beats San Jose State but loses to Fresno State
New Mexico State beats both Utah State and Nevada
Idaho beats Fresno State
Hawai'i beats San Jose State but loses to Fresno State
Nevada beats Louisiana Tech
New Mexico State would be second with a 10-6 record. Boise State and Idaho would be tied for third. Boise State would be awarded second with a sweep over Idaho and Idaho would be fourth. Hawai'i would be awarded fifth with a sweep over Fresno State and Nevada would be sixth. San Jose State would be awarded seventh because of a split with Boise State and Fresno State would be seeded eighth.
15. Boise State loses to San Jose State
New Mexico State beats Utah State but loses to Nevada
Idaho beats Fresno State
Hawai'i beats both San Jose State and Fresno State
New Mexico State beats Utah State but loses to Nevada
Idaho beats Fresno State
Hawai'i beats both San Jose State and Fresno State
Nevada beats Louisiana Tech
This combination would result in a five-way tie for second place between Boise State, New Mexico State, Idaho, Hawai'i and Nevada. Boise State, Nevada and New Mexico State would be 5-3 against the other four teams, Idaho would be 4-4 and Hawai'i would be 3-5. New Mexico State would be awarded second with a split against Utah State, Boise State would be awarded third with a sweep over Idaho and Nevada would be fourth. Idaho would be awarded fifth and Hawai'i sixth. San Jose State would be seventh and Fresno State eighth.
NOTE: This will be adjusted based on actual results Wednesday and Thursday.
NOTE: This will be adjusted based on actual results Wednesday and Thursday.
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