Thursday, July 21, 2011

Another Match 3--There are three columns below.  I am calling this one "Layers of Defense".  The first column lists a starter on the defensive line, the second lists a starter at linebacker and the third column lists a starter at safety for Boise State.  The object of the game is to match the starter on the defensive line with a starting linebacker from the same year and a starting safety from that same year.  In this game, there are no overlaps so in that way it is easier.  When you are done, you should have five "layers of defense" consisting of three starters from the same year, a defensive lineman, a linebacker and a safety.

(Answers are found by clicking on "Read More".)


Defensive Lineman                      Linebacker                      Safety
Saia Misa, Jr.                              Andy Avalos                   Jeff Davis
Marcus Koch                              Aaron Tevis                    Phil Bartle
Ryan Winterswyck                      Bryan Johnson                 Jim Meeks
Julius Roberts                              Jim Ellis                           George Iloka
Mike Maloy                                Kauhi Hookano               Wes Nurse




Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Seven More EA Sports Simulations in the Books

The Mountain West would be drooling over this one.  I have now simulated 15 separate seasons in EA Sports' popular NCAA Football software.  For those who are new and wondering why on earth I would want to do it:


Well, besides being fun and quite realistic, I discovered a long time ago (back in 2002) that the software was amazingly accurate at predicting games, at least from Boise State's perspective.  In the last nine years since that time, the software has accurately predicted all but six regular season Bronco games.  Given that track record, I have to at least see each year what they are forecasting.  


Before I go any further, I must point out that you see all kinds of stories about how the software predicts a game and they simulate a game to see the "winner".  You can't do that.  The possibilities for each matchup are such that the actual outcome could be all over the map--one team could win by 20 or the other could win by 20, and all kinds of results in between.  So merely choosing a random game to represent what the software predicts doesn't cut it.  I have found that you need at least 50 simulations and preferably 100 to be fairly accurate.  This will work out all the random things that can happen, such as a key player getting hurt the week before or during the game, or a key turnover happening, etc. that might skew the final result.  These things happen to both teams, but if you extend the number of samples, you get a truer result of the outcome.


I've already mentioned that I had previously run nine simulations and Boise State finished the year #1 twice.  I stopped this latest round at seven because it produced a result that the Mountain West Conference would salivate over.  Here is what happened:


Boise State finished the season 11-1, with their only regular season loss to TCU, and thus finished the season #3.  TCU was #1 in the nation.  Boise State drew a Rose Bowl berth with Oregon, which they won 35-18 and at the end of the bowl season, TCU was #1 and Boise State #2.  


In the 15 simulations thus far, Boise State has now won three "national championships".  I will have a summary of the odds of winning a title, the odds of winning the Mountain West, the odds of going to a BCS Bowl, as well as the software's overall predictions for all Boise State games later in the summer.
Here are the Match 3 Games so far on Blue Through and Through.  There are currently three but these will be expanded greatly in the weeks and months to come.  They are listed with the most current first.  (Note:  answers to all Match 3 games can be found by clicking on Read More.)

Game Three:
Another Match 3--There are three columns below.  I am calling this one "Layers of Defense".  The first column lists a starter on the defensive line, the second lists a starter at linebacker and the third column lists a starter at safety for Boise State.  The object of the game is to match the starter on the defensive line with a starting linebacker from the same year and a starting safety from that same year.  In this game, there are no overlaps so in that way it is easier.  When you are done, you should have five "layers of defense" consisting of three starters from the same year, a defensive lineman, a linebacker and a safety.

(Answers are found by clicking on "Read More".)


Defensive Lineman                      Linebacker                      Safety
Saia Misa, Jr.                              Andy Avalos                   Jeff Davis
Marcus Koch                              Aaron Tevis                    Phil Bartle
Ryan Winterswyck                      Bryan Johnson                 Jim Meeks
Julius Roberts                              Jim Ellis                           George Iloka
Mike Maloy                                Kauhi Hookano               Wes Nurse






Game Two:
There are three columns below.  The first contains the name of a Boise State quarterback, the second column contains the name of a Boise State running back and the third column contains a Boise State receiver.  The object is to match the quarterback, the running back and the receiver that played in the same starting lineup.  There may be more than one match, so to get the correct answer, use a process of elimination so that in the end, you have five matches consisting of a quarterback, the QB coach who coached him and the head coach in the year he started.

Answers can be found by clicking on "Read More" at the bottom of this post.


Quarterback                      Quarterback Coach          Head Coach
Tony Hilde                         Mark Helerich                    Dan Hawkins
Jared Zabransky              Andy Ludwig                      Lyle Setencich
Keith Jarrett                      Jim Zorn                             Pokey Allen
Bart Hendricks                 Chris Petersen                  Skip Hall
Mike Virden                      Gary Cabe                         Dirk Koetter






Game One:
Match 3 is a new matching game on Blue Through and Through.  There are three columns below.  The first contains the name of a Boise State quarterback, the second column contains the name of a Boise State running back and the third column contains a Boise State receiver.  The object is to match the quarterback, the running back and the receiver that played in the same starting lineup.  There may be more than one match, so to get the correct answer, use a process of elimination so that in the end, you have five matches of three players each.

Answers can be found by clicking on "Read More".


Quarterback                      Running Back                   Receiver
Ryan Dinwiddie                Chris Thomas                   Tony Hunter
Jared Zabransky              Jon Francis                        Eric Andrade
Jeff Mladenich                  Chris Jackson                   Tim Gilligan
Vince Alcalde                   David Mikell                       Drisan James
Hazsen Choates               Lee Marks                         Mike Wilson





Match 3 is a new matching game on Blue Through and Through.  There are three columns below.  The first contains the name of a Boise State quarterback, the second column contains the name of a Boise State running back and the third column contains a Boise State receiver.  The object is to match the quarterback, the running back and the receiver that played in the same starting lineup.  There may be more than one match, so to get the correct answer, use a process of elimination so that in the end, you have five matches consisting of a quarterback, the QB coach who coached him and the head coach in the year he started.

Answers can be found by clicking on "Read More".


Quarterback                      Quarterback Coach          Head Coach
Tony Hilde                         Mark Helerich                    Dan Hawkins
Jared Zabransky              Andy Ludwig                      Lyle Setencich
Keith Jarrett                      Jim Zorn                             Pokey Allen
Bart Hendricks                 Chris Petersen                  Skip Hall
Mike Virden                      Gary Cabe                         Dirk Koetter



Boise State Football Statistics, Lineups and Records

I had set a goal of getting these done by the start of football season, 2011.  I just completed a major session in which the statistics and lineups are nearly complete going back to 1968.  There are still some holes in which no publication from Boise State (media guides, etc.) nor the Idaho Statesman has the complete information.  So bear with me on that--I will find out the missing information and get that to where it is 100% complete and accurate.

There are some missing stats from 1973 and a problem with the blog itself is keeping me from updating that information but I am trying to get to the bottom of that as well.

I have come up with brand new records that have never been featured before in any publication and those are now complete, as is everything else in that tab.  I will continue to add new records to that tab and catch up on the existing ones published previously in past football media guides.

I still believe I can get all three of these sections completely done before September.  Thanks for your patience.

Patti is Next in Line at Boise State

Link to ESPN article:


http://247sports.com/Article/Elite-11-The-top-11-quarterbacks-from-Tuesdays-event-31999

247 Sports Ranks Nick Patti #4 on Day Two of Elite 11 QB Competition

Here is what 247sports.com had to say about Boise State quarterback recruit Nick Patti today:


The smallest prospect at the event, Patti looked to have the biggest arm on Tuesday. When other quarterbacks were laboring late in the day to sniff the target on the deep ball in the accuracy competition, Patti was effortless in his attempts. He also was very good throwing on the run and outside the pocket, not losing any zip on the football. Throwing alongside current Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore, it became apparent that Patti’s stature shouldn’t keep him from plenty of success under Chris Peterson.


http://247sports.com/Article/Elite-11-The-top-11-quarterbacks-from-Tuesdays-event-31999

Presnell Signs New Bronco Recruit

Riley Holsinger, a 5-9 guard from Spokane, Washington, has verbally committed to play women's college basketball at Boise State.

Holsinger wasn't a huge scorer (15.3 a game at North Central High School), but she's a winner from a 28-3 Lewis and Clark High School team (as a sophomore) and she has a good all-around game.  Holsinger also positioned herself for 7.7 rebounds last season for North Central, and posted 3.6 assists, 3 blocks and 3.8 steals a game.  Holsinger was a two-time All-Greater Spokane League player.

The Broncos have some serious improvement to do, as they head into the much more competitive Mountain West Conference this season.

Moore Watch Lists

More Broncos were put on Watch Lists for the nation's top college football players (ho-hum). Again, these watch lists contain a player from close to half of the college football teams, so they mean nothing.


Kellen Moore was added to the O'Brien and Walter Camp lists while Doug Martin was placed on the Doak Walker Watch list. Here is a summary of those lists thus far:




Kellen Moore (Quarterback) - Maxwell (most outstanding overall); O'Brien (quarterback); Walter Camp (most outstanding overall)


Billy Winn (Defensive Line) - Bednarik (defense); Nagurski (defense); Outland (interior lineman)


Nate Potter (Offensive Line) - Outland; Lombardi (lineman)


Thomas Byrd (Center) - Lombardi; Rimington (center)


Doug Martin (Running Back) - Maxwell; Walker (running back)


Kyle Efaw (Tight End) - Mackey (tight end)


George Iloka (Safety) - Thorpe (defensive back)


Shea McClellin (Defensive End) - Lombardi


Tyler Shoemaker (Wide Receiver) - Biletnikoff (wide receiver)

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Nick Patti at Elite 11 Camp

Boise State recruit Nick Patti is off and running, literally, at the Elite 11 Camp in Malibu, California.  Patti ran the second-fastest 40-meter time (4.64) out of the 24 quarterbacks invited to the camp.  The Elite 11 will be chosen later this week and the winner will be chosen Friday.  When the list is whittled to 11, that competition will air next month on ESPN.

Current Bronco quarterback Kellen Moore is one of five counselors at the Camp.

http://rise.espn.go.com/football/articles/2011/07/18-Elite-11-recap.aspx?pursuit=Football

Monday, July 18, 2011

Week 10 Schedule in Simulation Football League

They don't get any better than the Week 10 matchup between the 2003 and 2006 Boise State teams.  Two great teams, both battling for the two playoff berths in their division, playing solid football.  Similarly, the game pitting the Liberty Bowl Broncos with the 2008 team, promises to be filled with excitement.


In the Championship Division, the "national championship" team from USC goes against the 2005 Texas team in what should be a barn-burner.


Results will be posted Saturday on Blue Through and Through.


2003 Boise State vs. 2006 Boise State
2004 Boise State vs. 2008 Boise State
2005 Boise State vs. 2010 Boise State
2007 Boise State vs. 2009 Boise State


2001 Boise State vs. 2003 LSU
2002 Boise State vs. 2006 Florida



2004 USC vs. 2005 Texas
2001 Miami of Florida vs. 2002 Ohio State
2007 LSU vs. 2010 Auburn
2008 Florida vs. 2009 Alabama

Sunday, July 17, 2011

Six More NCAA Simulations

In the first post regarding NCAA simulations, I told you that out of two simulations, Boise State won the national championship.  That told you it was possible.  After six more simulations, you begin to see the odds.  It took six more times before the 2011 Broncos were able to win the BCS "national championship", making it now 2 out of 8.  That's probably fairly realistic.  We all saw last year how truly hard it is to go undefeated and I can tell you now that after observing the early results, there are a lot more pitfalls along the way.


TCU is going to be especially tough, even at home.  In eight simulations, Boise State has also lost to Nevada, Georgia, Tulsa and San Diego State. one time.  I'll summarize these at the end of the summer but you probably want to know the circumstances of Boise State's second national championship run.  They start out ranked #8 by EA/Sports.  In this simulation, they beat Georgia 49-22, beat Toledo 38-10, beat Tulsa 29-24, beat Nevada 42-17, beat Fresno State 48-20, beat Colorado State on the road 31-3, beat Air Force 34-24, beat UNLV 35-0, beat #5 TCU 45-17, beat San Diego State 35-13, beat Wyoming 59-3 at home and then beat New Mexico 59-7 to finish the season ranked #2.  The Broncos met Texas A& M in the championship and prevailed 28-25.


More results as they come in...

Simulation Football League Statistics After Week Nine

Here are the statistical leaders after nine weeks of play in the Simulation Football League:                        
   
   
Rushing:
1.    Ian Johnson, 2006 Boise State (229-1,290 and 15 TD's)
2.    Doug Martin, 2010  Boise State (191-1,253 and 10 TD's)
3.    Clinton Portis, 2001 Miami FL (217-1,226 and 12 TD's)
4.    Mark Ingram, 2009 Alabama (210-1,181 and 10 TD's)
5.    Jeremy Avery, 2009 Boise State (178-1,127 and 17 TD's)
6.    Brock Forsey, 2001 Boise State (214-1,066 and 13 TD's)
7.    Brock Forsey, 2002 Boise State (261-1,043 and 13 TD's)
8.    Ian Johnson, 2007 Boise State (171-1,026 and 13 TD's)
9.    Maurice Clarett, 2002 Ohio State (199-982 and 8 TD's)
10.  Lee Marks, 2004 Boise State (183-897 and 8 TD's)
11.  Justin Vincent, 2003 LSU (136-833 and 12 TD's)
12.   Ian Johnson, 2005 Boise State (148-801 and 7 TD's)
13. Jacob Hester, 2007 LSU (202-777 and 8 TD's)
14.   Michael Dyer 2010 Auburn (129-672 and 3 TD's)
15.  LenDale White, 2004 USC (166-646 and 10 TD's)



Passing:
1.    Matt Leinart, 2004 USC 220-317 for 2,999 yards and 18 TD’s vs. 3 INT
2.    Kellen Moore, 2010 Boise State 217-324 for 2,916 yards and 27 TD's vs. 4 INT
3.    Kellen Moore, 2009 Boise State 222-338 for 2,954 yards and 24 TD's vs. 3 INT
4.    Ryan Dinwiddie, 2003 Boise State 204-310 for 2,923 yards and 26 TD’s vs. 8 INT
5.    Ken Dorsey, 2001 Miami FL 215-355 for 3,053 and 16 TD’s vs. 8 INT
6.    Kellen Moore, 2008 Boise State 212-325 for 2,835 yards and 21 TD's vs. 12 INT
7.    Ryan Dinwiddie, 2002 Boise State 202-284 for 2,521 yards and 22 TD's vs. 6 INT
8.    Taylor Tharp, 2007 Boise State 215-353 for 2,624 yards and 13 TD's vs. 10 INT
9.    Ryan Dinwiddie, 2001 Boise State 183-302 for 2,452 yards and 10 TD’s vs. 6 INT
10.  Chris Leak, 2006 Florida 174-288 for 2,176 yards and 10 TD's vs. 13 INT





Receiving:
1.      Jeremy Childs, 2007 Boise State (61-681 and 3 TD's)
2.      Jeremy Childs, 2008 Boise State (56-638 and 7 TD’s)
3.      Early Doucet, 2007 LSU (54-589)
4.      Michael Clayton, 2003 LSU (49-555 and 2 TD's)
5.      Titus Young, 2009 Boise State (48-614 and 5 TD's)
6.      Titus Young, 2010 Boise State (45-719 and 10 TD's)
7.      Austin Pettis, 2009 Boise State (43-626 and 4 TD's)
8.      Austin Pettis, 2010 Boise State (42-537 and 3 TD's)
9.      Ethenic Sands, 2001 Miami FL (41-712 and 5 TD’s)
9.      Tim Gilligan, 2003 Boise State (41-693 and 6 TD’s)
9.      Billy Wingfield, 2002 Boise State (41-692 and 3 TD’s)
12.    Dominique Byrd, 2004 USC (39-501 and 1 TD)
12.    Jay Swillie, 2001 Boise State (39-465 and 5 TD's)
14.    Steve Smith, 2004 USC (38-653 and 4 TD's)
15.    Michael Jenkins, 2002 Ohio State (35-617 and 3 TD's)
16.    Jemalle Cornelius, 2006 Florida (34-453 and 2 TD's)
17.    Legedu Naanee, 2006 Boise State (33-526 and 7 TD's)
17.    Dwayne Jarrett, 2004 USC (33-408 and 3 TD's)
19.    Percy Harvin, 2006 Florida (31-462 and 1 TD)
19.    T.J. Acree, 2003 Boise State (31-359 and 4 TD's)
19.    Jeb Putzier, 2001 Boise State (31-358 and 3 TD's)




                                 
          Three Gabe Franklin's show up among interception leaders

Interceptions:
1.    Gabe Franklin, 2002 Boise State (6)
2.    Gabe Franklin, 2001 Boise State (4)
2.    Marty Tadman, 2005 Boise State (4)
2.    Kyle Wilson, 2008 Boise State (4)
5.    Phillip Buchanon, 2001 Miami FL (3)
5.    Gabe Franklin, 2003 Boise State (3)
5.    Matt Grootegoed, 2004 USC (3)
5.    Korey Hall, 2006 Boise State (3)
9.    Dustin Fox, 2002 Ohio State (2)
9.    Michael Griffin, 2005 Texas (2)
9.    George Iloka, 2008 Boise State (2)
9.    Jeron Johnson, 2009 Boise State (2)
9.    Quinton Jones, 2006 Boise State (2)
9.    Reggie Nelson, 2006 Florida (2)
9.    Edward Reed, 2001 Miami of Florida (2)
9.    Orlando Scandrick, 2007 Boise State (2)
9.    Ryan Smith, 2006 Florida (2)
9.    Brandon Spikes, 2008 Florida (2)
9.    Marty Tadman, 2006 Boise State (2)
9.    Kyle Wilson, 2007 Boise State (2)


Sacks:
1.    Darrell McClover, 2001 Miami (7)
2.    Maurice Sikes, 2001 Miami FL (6)
3.    Brad Allen, 2002 Boise State (5)
4.    Anthony Zehyoue, 2007 LSU (3)
4.    Collin Ashton, 2004 USC (3)
4.    Deshan Cabaong, 2004 Boise State (3)
4.    Javier Estopinoan, 2008 Florida (3)
4.    Alex Guerrero, 2003 Boise State (3)
4.    Jason Leach, 2004 USC (3)
4.    Kameron Merritt, 2001 Boise State (3)
4.    Edward Reed, 2001 Miami (3)
4.    Darryon Robinson, 2006 Florida (3)
4.    Frostee Rucker, 2004 USC (3)
4.    Nick Schlekeway, 2005 Boise State (3)
4.    Darrion Scott, 2001 Ohio State (3)
4.    John Square, 2001 Miami of Florida (3)
4.    Sione Tavake, 2007 Boise State (3)
18.  Aaron Tevis, 2010 Boise State (2)
18.  Timothy Anderson, 2002 Ohio State (2)
18.  Chase Baker, 2009 Boise State (2)
18.  Chase Baker, 2010 Boise State (2)
18.  Chris Barrios, 2002 Boise State (2)
18.  Daren Bates, 2010 Auburn (2)
18.  Ahmad Black, 2008 Florida (2)
18.  Joe Bozikovich, 2008 Boise State (2)
18.  Colt Brooks, 2006 Boise State (2)
18.  Chris Cabell, 2001 Miami (2)
18.  Shaun Cody, 2004 USC (2)
18.  Mike Dominguez, 2004 Boise State (2)
18.  Mike Dominguez, 2006 Boise State (2)
18.  Glenn Dorsey, 2007 LSU (2)
18.  Chris Gamble, 2002 Ohio State (2)
18.  Nick Gentry, 2009 Alabama (2)
18.  Erick Jackson, 2005 Texas (2)
18.  Korey Hall, 2005 Boise State (2)
18.  A.J. Hawk, 2002 Ohio State (2)
18.  Darrius Hightower, 2009 Alabama (2)
18.  Byron Hout, 2010 Boise State (2)
18.  George Iloka, 2010 Boise State (2)
18.  Tully Janszen, 2005 Texas (2)
18.  LaRon Landry, 2003 LSU (2)
18.  James Lewis, 2001 Miami (2)
18.  Oscar Lua, 2004 USC (2)
18.  Thomas Marshall, 2005 Texas (2)
18.  Shea McClellin, 2010 Boise State (2)
18.  Danny McCray, 2007 LSU (2)
18.  Rolando McLain, 2009 Alabama (2)
18.  Kameron Merritt, 2002 Boise State (2)
18.  Ryan Nelson, 2001 Boise State (2)
18.  Wes Nurse, 2001 Boise State (2)
18.  Wes Nurse, 2003 Boise State (2)
18.  Kenny Peterson, 2002 Ohio State (2)
18.  Robert Reynolds, 2002 Ohio State (2)
18.  Jarrell Root, 2010 Boise State (2)
18.  Craig Sanders, 2010 Auburn (2)
18.  Maurice Sapp, 2001 Boise State (2)
18.  Austin Smith, 2004 Boise State (2)
18.  Aaron Tevis, 2009 Boise State (2)
18.  Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe, 2010 Boise State (2)
18.  Courtney Upshaw, 2009 Alabama (2)
18.  Billy Winn, 2010 Boise State (2)
18.  Major Wright, 2008 Florida (2)
18.  Manuel Wright, 2004 USC (2)


                   Brotzman to the fourth power (Kyle is in the Top 15 for four different years.)

Field Goals:
1.    Leigh Tiffin, 2009 Alabama (28)
1.    Todd Sievers, 2001 Miami FL (25)
3.    Kyle Brotzman, 2009 Boise State (24)
3.    Mike Nugent, 2002 Ohio State (24)
5.    Tyler Jones, 2004 Boise State (22)
6.    Kyle Brotzman, 2007 Boise State (17)
6.    Jonathan Phillips, 2008 Florida (17)
8.    Kyle Brotzman, 2010 Boise State (16)
8.    Colt David, 2007 LSU (16)
10.  Chris Hetland, 2006 Florida (15)
10.  Nick Calaycay, 2002 Boise State (15)
10.  Ryan Killeen, 2004 USC (15)
13.  Anthony Montgomery, 2005 Boise State (13)
13.  Kyle Brotzman, 2008 Boise State (13)
13.  Tyler Jones, 2003 Boise State (13)



                              Avery scored another three TD's for 2009 Boise State

Scoring:
1.    Jeremy Avery, 2009 Boise State (126)
2.    Kyle Brotzman, 2009 Boise State (112)
2.    Leigh Tiffin, 2009 Alabama (112)
4.    Todd Sievers, 2001 Miami FL (109)
5.    Ian Johnson, 2006 Boise State (102)
6.    Tyler Jones, 2004 Boise State (95)
7.    Ian Johnson, 2007 Boise State (90)
7.    Kyle Brotzman, 2010 Boise State (90)
9.    Jonathan Phillips, 2008 Florida (89)
10.  Mike Nugent, 2002 Ohio State (87)
11.  Brock Forsey, 2002 Boise State (86)
12.  Brock Forsey, 2001 Boise State (84)
13.  Ryan Killeen, 2004 USC (83)
14.  David Pino, 2005 Texas (80)
15.  Kyle Brotzman, 2007 Boise State (75)
16.  Clinton Portis, 2001 Miami of Florida (74)
17   Nick Calaycay, 2002 Boise State (73)
18.  Mark Ingram, 2009 Alabama (72)
18.   Doug Martin, 2010 Boise State (72)
18.  LenDale White, 2004 USC (72)
21.  Tyler Jones, 2003 Boise State (71)
22.  Kyle Brotzman, 2008 Boise State (70)
23.  Anthony Montgomery, 2006 Boise State (69)
24.  Justin Vincent, 2003 LSU (66)
25.  Chris Hetland, 2006 Florida (65)
26.  Titus Young, 2010 Boise State (60)
27.  Colt David, 2007 LSU (59)
27.  Anthony Montgomery, 2005 Boise State (59)
29.  Chris Rainey, 2008 Florida (56)
30.  Lee Marks, 2004 Boise State (50)