Current WAC Commissioner's Cup Projections

I will always try to provide the most complete and up-to-date analysis of the WAC Commissioner's Cup race.  I know people from all over are interested and follow it so these projections can help you gauge how the race is shaping up.  The race has tightened up considerably since my last update.  The reason is that Boise State has fallen towards the bottom in two sports, women's track and men's golf, and the men's tennis team is down to 4th while the men's track team is projected to finish third.  Whereas Boise State had the Cup to themselves in a breeze, now it's up in the air.




The Commissioner's Cup is given annually to the WAC school that has the best overall sports department for that school year.  The standings are determined by a point system that gives inverted points to the schools based on their performance in 20 sports that the conference sponsors and how many WAC schools participate in each sport.  For example, there are nine teams in football, thus the champion gets nine points, the runner-up eight points, the third-place team gets seven points, etc.  If there is a tie, the two tied teams split the points for two positions, i.e. a tie for first would split the points awarded for #1 and #2 (9 + 8 = 17 divided by 2 = 8.5 each).  

 Men's Tennis:
1.  Fresno State 3.5
2.  Idaho 2.75
2.  New Mexico State 2.75
4.  Boise State 2
5.  Utah State 1.25
5.  Hawai'i 1.25
7.  Nevada 1 (awarded the full points for last place since they aren't in tournament)

Women's Tennis:
1.  Fresno State 4.5
2.  Boise State 3.75
2.  Nevada 3.75
4.  Idaho 3
5.  New Mexico State 2.5
6.  Hawai'i 2
7.  San Jose State 1.5
8.  Louisiana Tech 1
9.  Utah State .5

 Currently, Boise State has built a good lead (74.25 to 61.75) over Utah State.  Fresno State (54.00),  has moved into third.  New Mexico State is fourth with 53.50, followed by Idaho (49.25), Nevada (46.50), Hawai'i (41.00), San Jose State (38.00) and Louisiana Tech (34.00).  As pointed out however, after tennis, the only substantial points that Boise State will get will be in softball. 

The championships in men's and women's tennis that will be April 27-May 1 in Boise are next in line.
In coming up with the projections, I use the best available data in each sport.  For softball and baseball, the league standings are used.  For golf, I use Golfweek's weekly ratings and for tennis I use College Tennis Online's weekly rankings.  As the teams play more, the standings and weekly rankings will be more reliable.  For track, I will initially use the WAC Indoor Track Championship data but will switch to projected point totals for the Outdoor Championship based on top times once there is enough data available.  

Here are the projections for each sport:

Men's Tennis:  (April 27-May 1)
1.  Fresno State (7)
2.  New Mexico State (6)
3.  Idaho (5)
4.  Boise State (4)
5.  Hawai'i (3)
6.  Utah State (2)
7.  Nevada (1)

Women's Tennis:  (April 27-May 1)
1.  Boise State (9 points)
2.  Fresno State (8)
3.  Nevada (7)
4.  Hawai'i (6)
5.  Idaho (5)
6.  New Mexico State (4)
7.  Utah State (3)
8.  Louisiana Tech (2)
9.  San Jose State (1)

 Men's Golf:  (May 2-4)
1.  New Mexico State (9 points)
2.  Idaho (8)
3.  Fresno State (7)
4.  San Jose State (6)
5.  Nevada (5)
6.  Louisiana Tech (4)
7.  Hawai'i (3)
8.  Boise State (2)
9.  Utah State (1)


Softball:  (May 11-14)
1.  Fresno State (8 points)
2.  New Mexico State (7)
3.  Boise State (6)
4.  Hawai'i (5)
5.  Louisiana Tech (4)
6.  San Jose State (3)
7.  Nevada (2)
8.  Utah State (1)

Men's Track (May 10-13)
1.  Utah State (5 points)
2.  Fresno State (4)
3.  Boise State (3)
4.  Louisiana Tech (2)
5.  Idaho (1)

Women's Track (May 10-13)
1.  Louisiana Tech (8 points)
2.  Nevada (7)
3.  Utah State (6)
4.  New Mexico State (5)
5.  Fresno State (4)
6.  Idaho (3)
7.  Hawai'i (2)
8.  Boise State (1)

Baseball:  (May 25-29)
1.  Fresno State (7 points)
2.  New Mexico State (6 points)
3.  San Jose State (5)
4.  Louisiana Tech (4)
5.  Hawai'i (3)
6.  San Jose State (2)
7.  Nevada (1)

I will continue to do these projections on a semi-weekly basis.  As the teams get close to the championships in their respective sports, the data will get more accurate as being able to project the championship results.  As of right now, here are the projections for the final Commissioner's Cup point totals:

1.  Boise State 93.50  
     Boise State is expected to pick up most of its points in men's and women's tennis and in softball.  The Broncos are projected to score 25 points this spring--they will need to do well to hold off Fresno State.  If those teams do not come through, Boise State will likely lose the Cup.  On the other hand, since the women's golf team did better than expected, if the men's golf team can finish better than expected, Boise State's chances are dramatically improved.



2.  Fresno State 91.00
     The Bulldogs traditionally are the strongest team in the spring sports and this year should be no exception. Fresno State is expected to score 45 points in the spring alone.  Fresno is projected to win men's tennis, softball and baseball and are a strong contender for women's tennis and they are also expected to do extremely well in men's track and men's golf.  If one or more of those teams do not come through, Fresno could relinquish the challenger's role to New Mexico State.  All those teams have to do well and Fresno State has to hope that the key Boise State sports falter for the Bulldogs to take the Cup.  So far, that has happened.

Fresno State will once again provide the closest challenge to Boise State 



3.  New Mexico State 85.25
     The Aggies outdual Boise State for having the second best spring sports program to Fresno State, scoring 37 points.  The Aggies' best hope is to finish strong in their strengths and hope that their men's and women's tennis teams and women's track team can finish high while Boise State slips up somewhere.  Since they already have, NM State now has a chance.



4.  Utah State 77.75
     USU does fairly well in the spring but they aren't able to field a team in baseball, men's golf or women's golf.  Until they are able to fund those programs, Utah State will never have a serious chance of winning an overall competition.  Utah State is projected to score just 18 points this spring.  They could possibly finish third if everything goes right.



5.  Nevada 64.75
     Nevada has been a challenger nearly every year in the Commissioner's Cup.  However, poor fall programs hurt their chances severely.  They finished near the bottom in women's cross country, soccer and volleyball.  The only reason they are this high is because of their football, basketball and swimming programs.  Nevada is projected to score 23 more points in the spring.

6.  Idaho 64.50
     The Vandals have been in the middle of the pack for the last several years.  Idaho will get most of their points in men's and women's golf and men's tennis.  Idaho should get about 22 more points this spring.  They will fight for positions 5-8.




8. Hawai'i 59.75
    Hawai'i is expected to do the best in men's and women's tennis and softball.  UH should score in the neighborhood of 22 more points this spring.  That's a good total, but they are too far down to climb all the way to the top.




7.  Louisiana Tech 57.00
     Louisiana Tech has climbed out of the cellar in the Cup race and will score around 24 points this spring.  They probably won't get higher than #7, but they have a shot at that.

9.  San Jose State 51.50
     The Spartans are the favorite in women's golf and they should also do well in baseball.  San Jose State is projected to score 15 more points this spring.There are four WAC schools that are able to field men's indoor track, so the winner gets four points, #2 gets 3 points and so on.  Some sports, such as gymnastics, have auxiliary members (schools that are not officially in the WAC but participate in the conference in that sport).  In those cases, the auxiliary teams do not get points for the Commissioner's Cup but their places count in the point configuration.  If there are five schools that compete in a sport and Sacramento State, for example, is third, the league champion still gets five points, second gets four points, and the next WAC school, the fourth-place team, gets two points.  Men's and women's tennis, baseball and softball all split awarded points with half going to the regular season and half to the postseason championships.

Projected Points for WAC Women's Track

Here are the current projections for points at the upcoming WAC women's track championships.  They are based on the performances thus far in the WAC.

1.  Louisiana Tech 150
2.  Nevada 140
3.  Utah State 116
4.  New Mexico State 100
5.  Fresno State 99
6.  Idaho 96
7.  Hawai'i 67
8.  Boise State 53

Projected Points for WAC Men's Track

I usually don't like doing these early because of early-season injuries, etc.  so with just a few weeks left before the WAC Championships, here are the projected points for each team.  I should mention that Boise State's do-everything man, senior Kurt Felix, has not competed thus far in any of Boise State's meets.

1.  Utah State 189
2.  Boise State 143
2.  Fresno State 143
4.  Louisiana Tech 95
5.  Idaho 78

Make Plans to See #24 Fresno State and Boise State

Boise State's softball team accomplished a great feat over the weekend in sweeping Hawai'i.  From the frying pan into the fire.

The task gets much tougher this weekend as the Broncos have to face #24 Fresno State for three games.  Boise State is trying to secure one of the top three spots in the upcoming WAC Tournament.  The first game is scheduled for Friday at 3 with a doubleheader Saturday (games at 1 and 3).  And the weather really needs to cooperate because Boise State needs to get these games in to have a shot at the WAC title!

Boise State Softball Receives First Votes in Program History

It hasn't taken Boise State softball coach Erin Thorpe long to build a program.  In its third year, Boise State has received national votes for the Top 25.

The Broncos (29-15) have three votes in this week's poll to tie for 31st.  Boise State hosts #24 Fresno State this weekend at Mountain Cove Field for three games that will go a long way in deciding the regular season champion in the WAC. 

Aubray Zell Wins Third WAC Player of the Week Honor

The Boise State softball pitcher is making a bid for all-conference honors.  Today, the WAC office announced that Zell was its Pitcher of the Week for the third time this season.  Zell had two complete game victories over powerful Hawai'i in Honolulu over the weekend, posting a 0.50 ERA.


Zell and the Broncos have complete control of their destiny in the WAC.  Behind #25 Fresno State by just one game and New Mexico State by two games, Boise State hosts Fresno this weekend for three games and travels to Las Cruces for three games with New Mexico State.  Win them all and the Broncos are champs.

Schedule for Women's WAC Tennis Tournament

The women's tournament, keep in mind, gets underway one day earlier than the men's.  It starts Thursday.


Boise State gets the #1 seed and a first-round bye.  They will meet the winner of the Utah State-San Jose State match Thursday at 2:30 at the Appleton Center.

Thursday, April 28
Women's #8 (Utah State) vs. #9 (San Jose State)  -  9:00 a.m. - Appleton Tennis Center (ATC)
Women's #4 (Idaho) vs. #5 (New Mexico State)  -  9:00 a.m. - Julia Davis Park (JDP)
Women's #3 (Nevada) vs. #6 (Hawai'i)  -  12:00 p.m. - Julia Davis Park (JDP)
Women's #2 (Fresno State) vs. #7 (San Jose State)  -  12:00 p.m. - Appleton Tennis Center (ATC)
Women's Winner #8/9 vs. #1 (Boise State) - 2:30 p.m. - Appleton Tennis Center (ATC)

Friday, April 29
Women's semi-final -  Winner #3/6 vs. Winner #2/7 - 12:00 p.m. - ATC
Women's semi-final -  Winner #4/5 vs. Winner #1/8-9 - 3:00 p.m. - ATC
                               

Saturday, April 30

Women's Championship Match  -  10:00 a.m. - ATC 

Schedule for Men's WAC Tennis Tournament

Friday, April 29:
Men's #3 (Idaho) vs. #6 (Utah State)  -  12:00 p.m. - Julia Davis Park

Men's #4 (Boise State) vs. #5 (Hawai'i)  -  3:00 p.m. - JDP        

                           

Saturday, April 30Men's semi-final  -  Winner #3/6 vs. #2 New Mexico State  -  1:00 p.m. - Appleton Tennis Center
Men's semi-final  -  Winner #4/5 vs. #1 Fresno State  -    4:00 p.m. - ATC

Sunday, May 1Men's Championship Match - 12:00 p.m. - ATC

Up-To-the-Minute WAC Commissioner's Cup Standings

In this case, literally.  The last regular season matches have just been completed and, as shown in the other post, points awarded for the regular season in both men's and women's tennis.  I don't believe the WAC site posts the points on their page until the tournament is over, but you now know what the standings are without having to wait!


1.  Boise State 74.25
2.  Utah State 61.60
3.  Fresno State 54.00
4.  New Mexico State 53.50
5.  Idaho 48.25
6.  Nevada 46.50
7.  Hawai'i 41.00
8.  San Jose State 38.00
9.  Louisiana Tech 34.00


As mentioned in my Cup projections post last week, I am now forecasting Fresno State to finish with about 89 points.  That is going to be about the limit for them because they are projected to be near the top in most of the remaining sports (they can't get much higher).  As soon as Boise State tops that estimated total (and I will continue to revise projections as is necessary and will be able to provide a concrete number very soon), they will clinch the Cup.  At this time, I don't see any other league school challenging for the title.

New Points Awarded For WAC Commissioner's Cup

With the conclusion of the regular season for men's and women's tennis, points have been awarded for the WAC Commissioner's Cup.  The points for tennis are split with half going to the regular season and half to the tournament coming up in Boise.


Here is how it breaks down:


Men's Tennis:
1.  Fresno State 3.5
2.  Idaho 2.75
2.  New Mexico State 2.75
4.  Boise State 2
5.  Utah State 1.25
5.  Hawai'i 1.25
7.  Nevada 1 (awarded the full points for last place since they aren't in tournament)


Women's Tennis:
1.  Fresno State 4.5
2.  Boise State 3.75
2.  Nevada 3.75
4.  Idaho 3
5.  New Mexico State 2.5
6.  Hawai'i 2
7.  San Jose State 1.5
8.  Louisiana Tech 1
9.  Utah State .5

Boise State Tennis Team Loses to Arizona

The Broncos fell again to Arizona 4-2 this morning.  Their play in Las Cruces appears to have knocked them out of the NCAA Tournament unless they are able to win the WAC.


The men's WAC tourney gets underway Friday in Boise.

Boise State Beats Hawai'i 3-2 to Sweep Series

Boise State and Hawai'i each have a hit through an inning and a half.  Hawai'i got a leadoff single in their half.  Boise State won the first two games so Hawai'i is trying to salvage one.


Hawai'i takes a 2-0 lead, both runs earned but as a result of two Bronco errors in the inning.  Boise State has mounted a bit of a comeback in the fourth.  Allie Crump singled and Devon Bridges walked.  After a Capobianco strikeout, Kelly Sweeney doubled in Crump and Bridges is on third with one out.  Vanessa Alvarez did her job, pinch-hitting for catcher Megan Harvey.  She send a bly ball deep enough to score bridges and the game is knotted at two.


Crump's single in the fifth scored Holly Bourke with the game-winner.

Boise State Beats Hawai'i 7-4

I have heard local Boise media people say that Boise State had no chance to win the WAC because of teams like Fresno State and Hawai'i.


Well, Boise State is on the islands at the moment.  Last night, the Broncos won 2-1 in a pitcher's dual.  Tonight, Boise State leads Hawai'i 7-4.  The game is in the bottom of the seventh.


And the game is over, and once again, you heard the final score on this blog before any other site anywhere, radio, television, newspaper or internet.  Broncos win 7-4.


Here's how they did it.  With two outs, Kelly Sweeney's single to left center scored Vanessa Alvarez for a 1-0 Bronco lead in the second.  Kellie Caplan's single then scored Sweeney, who had advanced to second.


Boise State added two runs in the fourth.  Mackenzie Whyte walked, setting up freshman sensation Devon Bridges.  Guess what?  Bridges did it again, a two-run shot that gave Boise State a 4-0 lead.  Boise State would tack on two more runs in the fifth and they would prove to be important ones.  Pitcher Allie Crump singled, and for the second consecutive game, Christina Capobianco sent a two-run blast deep over the fence.  


Hawa'ii got two runs in the bottom of the fifth and two more in the bottom in the sixth to make it a 6-4 game.  Tazz Weatherly's walk with the bases loaded gave the Broncos an insurance run in their half of the seventh and Lela Work came in and saved the game for Boise State, pitching the last two innings.  


By the way, these two wins are the first two in program history over the mighty Rainbow Wahine, and even better, it was at their place.  I've been saying it all year and I'll repeat it--I believe this team can make a solid run at a championship, either in the regular season, the postseason, or both.  


They are about to play the second game of the doubleheader and last of the three-game set.  New Mexico State and Fresno State both continued to win today so the Broncos must do the same.  Boise State hosts #25 Fresno State next weekend and plays at New Mexico State the following weekend so they control their own destiny.

Sexton a Double Winner at Oregon Relays

Chase Sexton has won again at the Oregon Relays, this time in the shot put. Sexton, who won the discus last night, threw the shot 53-feet, 3.5 inches to take first.

And once again, this news was brought to you first in Idaho by this blog.

Nelson, Kraychir Finish 2-3 in Collegiate Hammer at Oregon Relays

Boise State juniors Alex Nelson and Trevor Kraychir have finished 2-3 out of the collegiate competitors in the hammer throw at the Oregon Relays in Eugene.

Nelson posted a mark of 203-10 while Kraychir recorded a 196-05.  Oregon's Jordan Stray (210-10) was the top collegiate competitor.  Two professionals finished 1-2 today.

Sexton Wins Discus at Oregon Relays

Boise State's Chase Sexton went into famous University of Oregon and captured the discus title at the Oregon Relays taking place this weekend in Eugene.

Sexton threw the disc 173-feet to take first place; Oregon's Randall Horn was third with a mark of 158-11. 

Bronco Men's Tennis Team Could Finish 4th in WAC

With two WAC matches remaining in the regular season, Boise State's proud tennis team could be seeded fourth in the upcoming tournament.  Idaho is currently 3-2, having lost to New Mexico State.  The Aggies are also 3-2 and both have matches against Nevada today.  Nevada is 0-4 and the odds highly favor wins by Idaho and New Mexico State.

If that happens, Fresno State (6-0) will be the #1 seed, followed by New Mexico State, Idaho, Boise State (3-3), Hawai'i and Utah State (2-4, but Hawai'i getting the #5 seed) and Nevada at 0-6.

Broncos Top Hawai'i 2-1 To Open Series

There are still two games left in their series, but Boise State was able to strike the first blow.

Christina Capobianco launched a two-run home run in the fifth inning to propel Boise State to a 2-1 victory over Hawai'i in the opening game of their three-game set in Honolulu.  Aubray Zell pitched another masterpiece in holding down the hot Hawai'i bats to preserve the victory.

Stephanie Ricketts of Hawai'i also pitched a gem, facing the minimum number of batters through four.  But a one-out walk to Devon Bridges set the stage for Capobianco's blast, her fifth of the season.  Bridges has now reached base safely in 32 consecutive games.  Boise State loaded the bases following the home run but stranded them all.

Zell handled Hawai'i until the sixth when Hawai'i (30-14, 8-5 in the WAC) cashed in on an error and left the tying run at second.  Aubray is 11-2 on the season, having defeated all seven WAC opponents in her career.

Boise State advanced to 27-15 and 10-3 in conference.  The Lady Broncos are the seventh team in WAC history to win 10 conference games twice in its first three seasons in the conference and the first to accomplish the feat in its first three years as a program.  Boise State and Hawai'i meet tonight in a doubleheader, with games at 8 and 10 p.m. Mountain Time.

Boise State Football Team Ranked #5 by ESPN

Boise State was ranked #5 by ESPN on the network's College Football Live show.  Oklahoma was rated as the best team with Alabama #2, Oregon #3 and LSU #4.  


Boise State was ranked #5 in the USA Today Coaches' Poll and got as high as #2 before the traditional drop when the college football elite get nervous that the Broncos are getting too close to a championship game.


Boise State meets a vastly-improved Georgia team September 3 in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game to open the 2011 season.

Seeds 2-6 Up in the Air for WAC Men's Tennis

On the heels of Boise State's loss to New Mexico State tonight, the WAC standings are up in the air.  The tournament field is now set with Nevada being officially eliminated as the Pack will finish seventh.  We also know that Fresno State will be the #1 seed.  


Other than that, it's now up in the air.  Boise State finishes the season 3-3 and can be passed by New Mexico State (2-2) for third place if the Aggies win tomorrow and Sunday.  Utah State and Hawai'i can finish no higher than fourth but could be lower depending on what New Mexico State does.  


We'll now have to wait until Sunday to get the seedings for the upcoming WAC Tournament in Boise that starts Friday.