It's become tradition--once again I simulated 100 "seasons" in E/A Sports' popular software NCAA Football. These guys do amazing homework. I have no idea all the data that they plug into this software but it has to be pretty extensive. You don't have to look at their record of predicting Boise State's games to see their validity. I am reasonably sure that Las Vegas has similar software that tells the oddsmakers how the games are going to go. They have a reasonable idea how the point spread is going to go and even how many points are going to be scored.
So E/A is not doing anything that hasn't been done before. The difference now is that it is available to the public. Now can the software give a reasonable idea on the point spread? My experience is "no, it can't". At least with the data that is plugged into the system in July, I have found that if you look at six or so weeks of actual results and manipulate the player ratings to approximate the actual scores, sometimes the point spread gets a little closer to the actual game results the rest of the seasonwhen you simulate it 50 times or so. But please don't use this to gamble your money away. (Disclaimer: These results are run for fun only. The results do not in any way predict how any game this season is going to go.) There, that's out of the way...
Usually, I would save the suspense for the end. This time, I'm just going to put it out there--if Boise State loses a game this year, they have only themselves to blame. Coach Chris Petersen's team can be as good as they want to be, as hard as they have worked in the summer and the fall to improve, how serious they take each and every game, if they are able to keep their conditioning during the season (have players play the same amount each game so they are used to playing that length of time), and if they are able to put teams away.
E/A sports has missed four games in the last 10 years in predicting regular season games for Boise State. In three of those games (Washington and Hawai'i in 2007 and Nevada last year), Boise State lost games they were supposed to win. Read: If they don't play up to their potential, the chances of them not realizing the results below increase.
There are three teams that rose to the top of the nation in the 100 simulations: Oklahoma, Boise State and Ohio State. Those three were close enough that they are essentially even in the ones that the simulations say will win the BCS "National Championship". Oklahoma and Boise State each won it 22 times with Ohio State at 18. Boise State won it five times in the final eight simulations so keep in mind that the final results can be different depending on when you stop the simulations. Realistically, I would interpret the results to mean that each of these teams has approximately a one-in-five chance (20%) of winning that national title, at least on paper. We all know that there is an extreme bias against Boise State, especially in the South, and centered--hmm, right around the locations of the SEC schools. If the Broncos don't like that fact, and want to influence that, it seems they have some proving to do on September 3 and the Boise State team will have to do some convincing...
I can't vouch for E/A's accuracy on predicting other teams; they just seem to be able to predict Boise State's games. And the BCS Bowls and certainly the title game is influenced so much by humans that the teams that deserve to be there may not necessarily be. For instance, Boise State deserved to be in BCS Bowls in 2008 and again last year, but Ohio State was selected instead. So the above results can be taken with a grain of salt. More reliable will be each of those team's chances of going undefeated. The rest is up to the suits and the powers that be.
Just to report the results, there were 19 teams that won the mythical "national championship" in the 100 simulations. Others could in addition to those that follow--it just depends a lot on luck, money and the bowl committees. Stanford finished fourth with seven championships, Texas A&M surprised me at least with six while Alabama had five. The rest are: South Carolina and Nebraska (four each), Oklahoma State with two and Wisconsin, Central Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, Utah, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, TCU, Houston and Washington, which each one the title one time.
Of course, Boise State didn't win every BCS title game they were in. The simulations ended with Boise State being in the championship game in 39 of the 100--again the software shows a 39% probability of making it to the game but does not take into account the Mark May's of the world. And, as shown above, Boise State won 22 of those 39 games, or a little more than half. In seven of those appearances, Boise State had one loss--probably not realistic given again those Mark May's of the world.
The next matter to be discussed is undefeated seasons. Even though Boise State will be favored in every game, the season is wrought with potential pitfalls at nearly every turn. This isn't a WAC schedule--far from it. Most of the teams on the schedule could beat the Broncos if they don't bring their "A" game. Lest I remind the Broncos or their fans, Boise State was favored against Nevada last year too. And there are several teams on the schedule--Georgia, Nevada, Tulsa, TCU, San Diego State, Fresno State...that have a better chance of beating Boise State this year than Nevada did last year. Boise State finished the regular season unbeaten 40 times in the 100 simulations, meaning they have a 40% chance of not losing a game. I'll put out another disclaimer--Boise State was forecast to win every game last year and we all know what happened then. I will say that the 40% is extremely high, and certainly higher than any Boise State team has ever been associated with.
OK, I've shown you the probabilities of winning a national championship, making it to the game and being fortunate enough to go through the season undefeated. You're going to want to know about BCS Bowls, and the relationship to E/A simulation predictions and actual results is slightly more reliable than forecasts for national championship games, although you're still in someone else's hands and relying on so many human factors and emotional reactions. Fans of other teams--don't get all outraged for what you read next; I'm just reporting what the software says--blame E/A if you don't like it. Boise State made a BCS Bowl or BCS Championship in 88 of the 100 simulations. Before Boise State fans gulp and before other fans fall on the floor laughing, I'll also say that in three simulations they made one of the big five with two losses--not too realistic. So I subtract those three out and make that number 85.
However, one of the questions heading into the season is that given Boise State's tougher schedule, could they make it to a BCS Bowl with one loss? What I hear from the talking heads is that they can, if they beat TCU. In the simulations, most of the time that was the case--if Boise State beat TCU and finished with one loss, they were generally in but there were exceptions.
So wait, you're saying. Boise State was unbeaten 40 times, but made it to the final game 39 times, including seven with one loss. How can this be? Well, there were several times in which Boise State was undefeated and did not make it to the BCS final game--eight times in fact.
Out of the 88 BCS Bowl games, Boise State won 50 of them, or in the non-championship games, the Broncos won 28 of 49. Coach Petersen will tell you the most important ranking to him is the final one, and I have good news to report back to the coach. No matter what Boise State's season record, BCS Bowl game or not, national title game or not, win or lose in those games, the Broncos finished the season extremely high. In 81 of the 100 simulations, Boise State finished the year in the Top 10 and this is probably the most reliable of the statistics we've looked at so far.
So that leaves 12 other simulations in which Boise State did not go to a major bowl game. In 11 of those 12, the Broncos made a bowl, meaning essentially there is a 99% chance that Boise State will go to a bowl game this year. Of those 11 other bowl games, the Broncos won 10 of them.
We'll now look at season record results. I mentioned that Boise State finished unbeaten in 40 simulations. If you turn that around, it also means there is a 60% chance that the Broncos will stumble somewhere. It happened last year even though people didn't think there was any way they could possibly lose to Nevada and it can happen this year if Boise State doesn't take care of business. Boise State finished 13-0 26 times--again sometimes they made the championship game with one loss and sometimes they finished unbeaten and did not make the title game. The Broncos finished 12-1 49 times in the 100 simulations, 11-2 21 times, 10-3 three times and one disastrous finish of 7-5.
So let's see--40 unbeaten regular seasons, 26 perfect seasons, 49 times they finished with a loss and then 11 other results. That would average out to a little more than one loss a year.
Boise State enters an exciting first season in a brand new conference--the highly-regarded Mountain West. Given all the seniors in the lineup, you would expect that they would at least hold their own, and that proved to be the case. Boise State was fortunate enough to win the conference in 83 of the 100 simulations. In most of the other 17, TCU captured the title although San Diego State won two and Air Force won once.
I didn't run simulations for Boise State's opponents per se, but I did keep track of them. TCU finished the season in the Top 25 in 51 of the 100 simulations, far more than any other opponent. Nevada finished in the Top 25 in 30, followed by Air Force with 14, Tulsa with 11, Georgia and San Diego State in 10 each, Fresno State in 3 and Toledo and UNLV 1 each. Georgia finished the season with an average record of 7.2-5.4 (The tenths of a point mean that some years they made a bowl game (most years) and some they did not. The other average ending records for Boise State's opponents are: Toledo (7.1-5.1), Tulsa (7.4-5.3), Nevada (10.2-2.7), Fresno State (7.5-5.1), Colorado State (6.4-6.0), Air Force (9.8-3.0), UNLV (2.3-9.8), TCU (9.8-3.1), San Diego State (10.0-2.9), Wyoming (2.9-9.1), New Mexico (2.6-9.4)
EA also hands out national awards at the conclusion of each simulation and while these can't be looked upon as reliable, they are fun nevertheless and I will report what they showed. Doug Martin won the Heisman Trophy once. Kellen Moore won the Davey O'Brien Award eight times, Doug Martin won the Doak Walker award nine times and the Walter Camp award once, Tyler Shoemaker won the Biletnikoff Award three times, Kyle Efaw won the John Mackey award twice and Thomas Byrd won the Remington award once.
So that pretty much takes care of the peripheral results from the simulations. If you have any other questions, raise them in the comments below. I have all the data here and can answer any question you have. It's time to get on the actual "meat"--the results of the game simulations!
Boise State vs. Georgia September 3 Boise State 87, Georgia 13 Average Score: Boise State 38, Georgia 22
I have found that to approach what E/A Sports builds into the software, one needs to do a minimum of 50 simulations and I prefer a minimum of 100. When there are 20 or less wins separating the two teams, that is when the chance for an upset is greatest.
As with all simulations the last nine years (can't believe this is the 10th year I've been doing this!), the most accurate predictor is the wins and losses and obviously the more it approaches 100%, the more accurate it is. However, if I can impress one thing upon you it is that nothing is guaranteed. Boise State was also favored to beat Nevada by a large margin and did not get it done. The Broncos rolled to a big lead then ran out of gas and it spoiled an otherwise perfect season. When you analyze the results below, remember that Georgia won in 13 games and they have incredible talent that can roll to a win over the Broncos, especially in their backyard. All of the 100 simulation results below are possible and no doubt hundreds more.
The way to interpret this is that Boise State has an 87% chance of beating Georgia but it doesn't mean they will. Many factors come into play (location, weather, crowd noise, momentum, breaks, penalties, injuries, not playing up to potential, etc.) Georgia's biggest win was 43-17 although most of their wins were by 10 points or less. Boise State's biggest win was 56-10 which they achieved twice. The other Boise State wins were by various margins. 15 Bronco wins were by 10 points or less. And keep in mind that in one simulation, Georgia won 43-17--that's a pretty wide range of scores. Again, the actual result could be any of the ones below or something completely different--the probability approaches the mean but it is by no means something you can count on (Don't take it to the bank, in other words.) Again, one doesn't have to go any further than the Nevada game last year to find a great example of a result proving the probability wrong.
Here are all of the 100 simulation results between these two teams:
Boise State at Toledo September 16 Boise State 96, Toledo 4 Average Score: Boise State 43, Toledo 16
Although Toledo only won four of these 100 simulations, the game will likely be closer than last year's contest in Boise. 16 of Boise State's 96 wins (or 1 in 6) were decided by 10 points or less. That's a pretty significant percentage and if the Rockets gain some early season momentum, the chances of this go up quite a bit. Boise State's biggest win was 56-0, but a very low chance that it will be this lopsided.
Boise State vs.Tulsa September 24 Boise State 90, Tulsa 10 Average Score: Boise State 39, Tulsa 21
Tulsa has a good shot at winning Conference-USA and anytime you're going up against a potential conference champion, you're going up against winners--the players believe they can win. Even though the game is in Bronco Stadium, note the 10 Tulsa wins. They have a 10% chance of winning and then you add in the fact that 22 of Boise State's wins are by 10 points or less and you have a 32% chance that the game will be tight. Other than TCU, Tulsa has the best chance of possibly ending Boise State's home streak. Boise State's biggest win of the 100 simulations was 45-0, though again there is a very low chance of that.
Boise State vs. Nevada October 1 Boise State 91, Nevada 9 Average Score: Boise State 38, Nevada 20
This game is very similar to the one above. Nevada won in nine simulations, and Boise State won by 10 or less in 19 more, meaning a 28% chance of a tight game. The number sounds low, but it is indeed significant. Boise State's biggest win was 48-7 and that's if everything goes right for the Broncos and everything goes wrong for Nevada--slim chance of that.
Boise State at Fresno State October 7 Boise State 94, Fresno State 6 Average Score: Boise State 39, Fresno State 19
17 of Boise State's 94 wins (or better than 1 in 6) were by 10 points or less. When you combine that with Fresno's six wins, you get 23 out of 100 simulations in which the game was close or went Fresno's way. Generally, Fresno State finished the season with a .500 record or slightly better. But they certainly have the talent to knock off Boise State at home, as the data shows below.
Boise State at Colorado State October 15 Boise State 100, Colorado State 0 Average Score: Boise State 42, Colorado State 12
Although Colorado State wasn't able to win any of the simulations, don't let that fool you. They too are going to hover around .500 and you're not in the WAC any more, Boise State. The Rams look to be improved with a good chance at a bowl.
October 22 Boise State 97, Air Force 3 Average Score: Boise State 37, Air Force 17
This was a surprising result to me, as heading into the season, I saw this as one of Boise State's toughest games. And it still might be. 21 of the Bronco wins were by 10 points or less so depending on performance that day, the game could be close.
Boise State at UNLV November 5 Boise State 100, UNLV 0 Average Score: Boise State 49, UNLV 7
Unless early-season results are drastically different for both teams than what the simulations show, E/A's software predicts this to be one of the mismatches.
Boise State vs. TCU November 12 Boise State 77, TCU 23 Average Score: Boise State 37, TCU 24
On average, this was the tightest game of the year and TCU logged more wins (23) than any other Bronco opponent on the schedule. The biggest surprise was the score--the average score and indeed most of the scores reflect more of a 2003-style game than the last two bowl games (2008 and 2009) between these two great teams.
Boise State at San Diego State November 19 Boise State 94, San Diego State 6 Average Score: Boise State 41, San Diego State 20
This type of result would shock me, frankly. I think San Diego State has a fairly good shot at winning this game and I was surprised they only won six times. Something has to give--either I'm way off or the software is way off. But it's good to be concerned and this is a dangerous game in San Diego. 20 of Boise State's wins were by 10 points or less.
Boise State vs. Wyoming November 26 Boise State 100, Wyoming 0 Average Score: Boise State 48, Wyoming 6
Although the Mountain West bottom teams are better than the WAC, this is one that was decidedly in Boise State's favor. In several simulations, Wyoming did not score but a touchdown proved to be about the average.
Malcolm Johnson and Grant Hedrick scored touchdowns and Joe Southwick fired a 66-yard scoring strike to Geraldo Boldewijn as the Boise State offense emerged victorious 26-20 in Bronco Stadium in the only Bronco scrimmage that will be open to the public.
Boise State head coach Chris Petersen has always been secretive, but to only allow one scrimmage and not one eye from the public seeing the team the last two weeks of fall ball is really playing it close to the vest.
Johnson led all runners with 10 carries for 41 yards while Hedrick was 9-10 passing for 97 yards and gained 26 yards on seven carries. Southwick was 4-10 for 101 yards and gained 37 yards on three carries. Senior quarterback Kellen Moore was not as effective, going 7-12 for 116 yards. Moore threw two touchdowns on red zone drills but those did not count in the scoring.
Freshman Troy Ware led the receivers with four catches for 42 yards. The offense also got field goals from junior Michael Frisina and freshman Dan Goodale, but freshman kicking sensation Jake Van Ginkel only attempted extra points.
The Bronco defense got points on sacks (two points each) from senior Jarrell Root, sophomore Kharyee Marshall and freshman linebacker Blake Renaud and another two on a combined sack from David Cushing and Beau Martin. The defense also got three points for three field goal stops in the red zone and nine points for three fourth-down stops.
Boise State begins the season against what is thought to be one of the most improved teams in the nation, #22-ranked Georgia, in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game Saturday, September 3 in the Georgia Dome. Although Boise State was only allotted just over 7,000 tickets in the 71,000-seat home of the Atlanta Falcons in Atlanta, over 10,000 Bronco fans are expected. According to my research, more Boise State fans would have gone had tickets made available to them. Georgia was allotted over 60,000 tickets in the "neutral" game.
Last night's scrimmage drew 15,623 fans to Bronco Stadium.
David Tingstad is another example of the fine young men that Boise State football coach Skip Hall brought to Boise. Let's review Tingstad's time at Boise State and catch up on what David has been doing since graduating from Boise State.
Tingstad broke in with the team as a freshman in 1989, carrying 8 times for 25 yards and scoring his first collegiate touchdown on a reception, one of 5 catches he had for 54 yards that season. In 1990, David played a large role on the Bronco team that reached the Division I-AA Semi-Finals, serving as a devastating blocker for tailback Chris Thomas while also rushing for 210 yards on 73 carries and a touchdown. Tingstad also caught 18 passes for 118 yards.
In 1991, David was the second-leading rusher (85 carries for 306 yards and a touchdown) and also caught 32 passes for 215 yards and 5 scores. As a senior, he led the Broncos with 303 yards rushing and two touchdowns on 81 carries, caught 20 passes for 150 yards and scored two two-point conversions.
In 2011, Tingstad stands as the 27th-leading career rusher (844 yards) in school history and ranks fourth among fullbacks, behind #1 David Hughes (1,826), Abe Brown (1,189) and Ken Johnson (1,074).
David graduated magna cum laude from Boise State in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics. From there, he went to the Seattle University School of Law and graduated cum laude in his class.
David joined Beresford Booth PLCC Law Firm in 1995 and was admitted to the practice of law for the Western District of Washington in the U.S. District Court the following year. Tingstad has extensive experience in the areas of business and real estate transactions, limited liability companies, corporations, real property and estate planning. Dedicated to assisting entrepreneurs and business owners, David provides significant value-added services on a practical, as well as strictly legal basis. Known as a deal-maker, rather than a deal-breaker, what separates David from many other business lawyers is his ability to 1) organize diverse client objectives into a strategic plan, and 2) get things done.
Tingstad specializes in Business, Real Estate and Estate Planning and belongs to the American Bar Association and the Washington State Bar Association. As a member of the Washington State Bar Partnership Law Committee, David is currently working to revise Washington's Limited Liability Company Statute. He is also a member of the Committee on LL's, Partnerships and Unincorporated Entities. Tingstad has published the following articles: "Limited Liability Companies and Limited Liability Partnerships in Washington" (2001, 2003 and 2007), "The Probate Process from Start to Finish in Washington" (2000) and "2010 Legislation and Other Recent Developments: Essentials, Overview, and Strategic Insights".
David regularly speaks to groups of attorneys, professional organizations and business and community associations.
And as you might expect a Skip Hall-coached Bronco to do, Tingstad gives back to his community. He is a Sunday School teacher and coaches youth football, basketball and baseball.
Boise State president Bob Kustra announced at his annual State of the University Address that the school has received a grant from the prestigious W.M. Keck Foundation.
The $1 million, three-year grant will support development of a system that could provide early-stage diagnosis through a simple blood test and lead to treatment of hundreds of diseases ranging from cardiovascular to neurological.
Will Hughes, assistant professor of materials science and engineering at Boise State, will be the principal investigator in the research project. Hughes will lead a team of professors in chemistry, biology and engineering at Boise State as well as colloborators at St. Luke's Mountain States Tumor and Medical Research Institute in Boise, the Wistar Institute in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the Boise Veterans Affairs Medical Center and the Idaho IDeA Network of Biomedical Research Excellence. “Boise State seeks to conduct biomedical research that pushes the boundaries of discovery with new technologies that could save lives,” Kustra said. “This highly-competitive Keck Foundation grant is a testament to the innovative thinking of our faculty and their pioneering work that could have a profound global impact.”
The Keck Foundation is known for funding high-risk, high-return projects in science, engineering and medical research. Other recent recipients of Keck grants include Arizona State University, UCLA, Boston College, University of Texas, Columbia University, Stanford University, University of California, Berkeley, and Princeton University.
“Our vision is to fundamentally change early-stage disease diagnosis and treatment on a global scale,” Hughes said. “By using engineered biochemical tools, disease-specific markers could be identified through a portable DNA-based device that is analogous to a disposable pregnancy test. We believe the system could potentially become the gold standard in diagnosing diseases, especially where medical equipment and resources are scarce.”
Hughes, who is an expert in nanoscience and medical applications of DNA nanotechnology, joined Boise State in 2008 and the MSTMRI in 2010. Previously, he was an assistant professor of materials engineering at the California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, and a Center for the Advancement of Scholarship on Engineering Education post-doctoral fellow at the National Academy of Engineering in Washington, D.C. Hughes earned his Ph.D. at the Georgia Institute of Technology and his bachelor’s degree at the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
The Boise State research team also features Bernard Yurke, co-principal investigator and research professor of materials science and engineering, who is an internationally-recognized leader in quantum optics and DNA nanotechnology; Cheryl Jorcyk, co-principal investigator and professor of biological sciences, who is a leader in oncology and molecular mechanisms of tumor progressions; Jeunghoon Lee, assistant professor of chemistry, who is an expert in nanomaterial synthesis; and Elton Graugnard, assistant research professor of materials science and engineering, who is both an expert in nanotechnology and the lead experimentalist on the project.
“Our team is passionate about the potential for this research,” said Amy Moll, interim dean of the College of Engineering. “The effort is unique in how it integrates the biological sciences with physics, chemistry, materials science and computer science. The support of the Keck Foundation provides a catalyst that will result in tangible benefits to our emerging research community.”
The primary research focus initially will be the detection of lung cancer, analyzing a series of engineered reactions between synthetic DNA components and cancer-specific micro-RNA's, which are small nucleic acids that perform as gene regulators. The detection of micro-RNAs of diagnostic significance could fundamentally change the diagnosis and treatment of cancer.
Based in Los Angeles, the W.M. Keck Foundation was established in 1954 by the late William Myron Keck, founder of the Superior Oil Company, and is one of the nation’s leading private sponsors of cutting-edge scientific research. The foundation’s grant making is focused primarily on pioneering efforts in the areas of science, engineering and medical research, in addition to undergraduate education and community service projects in Southern California.
The Boise State wide receivers have some huge shoes to fill. Gone are the top two receivers in school history, Austin Pettis and Titus Young.
It doesn't help that the unit only has one senior (Tyler Shoemaker) and two juniors with only limited playing experience (Chris Potter and Mitch Burroughs). Indications are, however, that the receivers are progressing just fine, thank-you, and that makes it tougher for opening-game opponent Georgia to prepare its defense. That fits with Boise State's recent history. Several times in the last ten years, entire groups of receivers have left, only to find that the next group is more talented than their successors.
Still, I suspect that Georgia will concentrate on stopping the running game and make the receivers prove they can cause damage. Besides, Georgia's corners are athletic enough that they should be able to contain the wide receivers. The Bulldogs probably have more to worry about with the tight ends. Kyle Efaw (6-4,242) is as fine a tight end as you'll see in the country and reports are that sophomore Gabe Linehan (6-3,232) is turning heads. Chandler Koch (6-2,250) is another target for quarterback Kellen Moore. If those guys break free over the middle, that limits the ability of the safeties to come up and stop the run. In any case, it certainly gives Georgia plenty to think about. Freshmen Kyle Sosnowski (6-1, 288) is coming off a redshirt season and Jake Hardee (6-3,236) is a walk-on from Boise's Bishop Kelly High School.
But back to the wide receivers because that is one of the question marks heading into the season. Who will step up to get playing time for Boise State? There have been five in particular. Sophomore Geraldo Boldewijn (6-4, 200) is still learning American football but as he does, and as the Bronco coaches mold him, he's going to get better and better. He was already making great catches in the Spring game and he has made considerable progress since then. Kirby Moore set national records in high school and so far has yet to transfer that success to the college level. But Moore has stepped up as he has learned the offense and is running crisper routes. Bronco fans have been waiting for Aaron Burks to blossom and it appears that is finally the case. He worked hard in the summer and is ready to hit the field.
Two freshmen in particular, Dallas Burroughs (5-9,170) and Matt Miller (6-3,215) have really impressed this fall. Coach Chris Petersen doesn't usually play true freshmen, although he played Young and Pettis when they were freshmen. Miller gives Boise State great size and was highly recruited out of high school. Burroughs is even faster than brother Mitch (5-9, 181) as Dallas broke the 25-year-old state record in the 100. His time of 10.34 ranked as the fastest in the nation last year if you discount wind-aided times. With Miller's size and hands and Burroughs' speed, is it really possible that in one year Boise State could replace Young and Pettis with guys that could turn out to be as good? Again, that's Boise State's history so I wouldn't bet against them. Shoemaker, Mitch Burroughs and Potter give the Broncos the experience. Redshirt freshman Troy Ware (6-1,181) is another receiver the Broncos have high hopes for but given the talent ahead of him, it will be tough for Ware to break through for anything more than spot duty. Junior Tyler Jackson (6-0, 193) and freshman Cory Brehm (6-0, 185) give Boise State depth.
It is difficult to gauge how the Bronco receivers will do this season. On the one hand, they don't bring a lot of experience into the season. But they do have talent and loads of potential. And it certainly doesn't hurt to have the defending passing efficiency leader in the nation returning to throw to you.
Ahh, the pre-game pageantry, the endless babble coming from the national announcers, first we see the Keith Stein Blue Thunder Marching Band representing the 2009 Boise State team with their excellent performance, then after that, the Keith Stein Blue Thunder Marching Band takes the field to drum up support for the 2010 Boise State team. Then we see the respective coaches, Chris Petersen and Chris Petersen, shake hands and exchange pre-game pleasantries.
After twelve grueling weeks of the regular season and impressive wins last weekend by these two teams, we're ready for the game...The 2009 Broncos won the toss and deferred. They will kick off.
It didn't take long for the game's first score. The 2010 Broncos marched 53 yards in seven plays on the game's opening drive with Doug Martin picking up 28 yards. Kyle Brotzman came on to kick a 45-yard field goal, right through the uprights and the Las Vegas Bowl Broncos led 3-0.
Jeremy Avery got a nice return on the kickoff to give his team good field position on the 38. Quarterback Kellen Moore led the Fiesta Bowl champs on a nine-play drive with Avery scampering in from 11 yards out. After an exchange of punts, Moore connected with tight end Kyle Efaw from 13 yards out and the 2010 Boise State team led 10-7. Kyle Brotzman's 48-yard field goal equaled his counterpart and also tied the game with eight seconds left in the first quarter.
The 2010 team sputtered a bit on its next drive, with Moore being sacked by Billy Winn, George Iloka and Garcia Day on three separate plays. Still, a 31-yard field goal by Brotzman gave them points and the Broncos led the 2009 team 13-10. The 2009 Brotzman missed a 49-yard attempt, providing an early opportunity. Doug Martin rumbled through the middle for 33 yards and two plays later, Moore hit Titus Young for a 19-yard score. Brotzman missed the extra point but the 2010 team still led 19-10.
As they had done with Virginia Tech and Nevada in the season, the 2010 team did not bring down the hammer, and the 2009 Broncos scored 23 unanswered points to take a commanding 33-19 lead. Avery scored his second touchdown of the game, Kellen Moore hit brother Kirby Moore and Brotzman nailed three consecutive field goals.
Potter scores key fourth-quarter touchdown for the 2009 team
Facing a 14-point deficit to begin the fourth, the 2010 Broncos came back. Moore found Young for plays of 24 and 22 yards and Austin Pettis for a 23-yard gain. Brotzman finished the drive with his third field goal of the game, this time from 41 yards out, as the 2010 team pulled within 11. Then, the defense held on and Moore connected with Efaw for 19 and Pettis for 21, setting up a first-and-10 at the 2009 Boise State 25-yard line. Moore went back to pass, and spotted Chris Potter at the five. Potter hauled it in and scored as Pettis made an excellent block to clear the way. The 2010 Broncos closed to 33-30 as Martin ran it it for a two-point conversion.
Once again, the defense held and this time, it only took three plays as Moore hit a streaking Tyler Shoemaker for a 54-yard bomb that put the 2010 Boise State team ahead 37-33 with just 2:52 left.
Avery ignited the 2009 Broncos with a 38-yard kickoff return to the 46. Avery ran for six and D.J. Harper gained 15 yards on the next two plays to give his team the ball on the 37 with 1:43 remaining. The drama could be felt by both teams and nervous fans in the stands. After a time out, Moore calmly set up and sent a bullet to Young who ran out of bounds on the 17. Martin was the recipient of the next pass from Moore but could not get out of bounds. With 1:10 left, Martin took a handoff and was tackled by end Ryan Winterswyck just short of a first down. The clock continued to wind down.
Harper gained the necessary yardage on a play off left tackle and ran out of bounds to stop the clock. The 2010 Broncos had a first-and-goal with 51 seconds left. Moore backed up, saw nothing downfield and had to dump a pass to Avery, who was tackled immediately by Billy Winn. 2009 Coach Petersen elected to burn a second timeout to talk to his young field general. An excellent play by Iloka saved a touchdown as he batted down a Moore pass intended for Young.
Now the 2009 team had a third-and-goal with 41 seconds remaining. This time, Moore went to a familiar target, and his floating pass in the end zone was just out of reach of cornerback Jamar Taylor and into the waiting arms of brother Kirby, who snared the ball! Brotzman kicked the extra point and the 2009 team led 40-37.
2010 quarterback Moore did all he could but with only 29 seconds to work with, could only get the ball to his own 37 as time expired.
Avery led the winners with 151 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Young caught 6 passes for 108 yards and a score while Pettis grabbed 5 for 91. Moore finished the game 28-43 for 260 yards and two touchdowns.
For the 2010 team, Martin had 97 yards rushing on 18 carries while Moore was 27-40 for 412 yards and four scores but one interceptions. Titus Young had seven catches for 58 yards, Pettis had 5 receptions for 42 and Tyler Shoemaker had four catches for 63.
The 2009 Boise State celebrated their amazing Simulation Football League season. They finished 13-1 and were crowned SFL Champion by Blue Through and Through owner Rocketman as well as officials from WhatIfSports, who provided the simulation software.
The benefits of being in the Mountain West are readily recognized for the Boise State women's basketball team. The Broncos have announced the schedule for their first campaign in the MWC and it will feature a record 17 home games. Both Syracuse (25-10 last season) and Pepperdine (18-12) are coming to Taco Bell Arena. The Syracuse game on November 29 will be the first regular season nationally-televised game in Lady Bronco history. But wait, there's more.
Boise State will also be nationally-televised in three other games, all conference battles. The Broncos home game with Colorado State on January 17, the home contest against Air Force on February 11 and a road game against Colorado State will also be featured on the Mountain, the home channel for the Mountain West Conference.
You can access the full schedule as well as the schedules for the other Bronco sports at any time by clicking on the "Schedules" Tab at the top of the blog.
The star high school safety (6-1,208) from the San Jose, California has just tweeted that he has committed to Boise State. My understanding is that Santini is being recruited to play the nickel position. Santini was down to Oregon State and Boise State before deciding to come to Boise. Other schools who had offered the talented Santini were Utah, Army, New Mexico, New Mexico State and UNLV. Santini was also talking to Oregon, California, Stanford, Washington and Washington State before committing to the Broncos. More information soon.
For those that have known me a while, one of the things people look forward to the most from my articles is the summary of EA Sports NCAA Football simulations.
For those that don't know, EA Sports puts out software every summer that contains data and images from the college football season ahead. NCAA Football has been a huge hit among video gaming lovers for years. That doesn't make for an article I would publish here.
What does make for an interesting read is what has proven to be an amazing track record. In addition to gaming, the software can be simulated to produce game results and even season results. The "season" is complete with rankings and statistics. In 2002, I discovered, after the season, that if I simulated the season several times and compared the results, EA had exactly predicted Boise State's 2002 season. After averaging the results, it had predicted a loss to Arkansas with wins over each other team. What an interesting coincidence, I thought.
When the software was released in the summer of 2003, for fun I simulated Boise State's upcoming season, again with several results that were averaged. When I looked at the summary, it predicted Boise State would lose on the road to Oregon State, but that would be their only loss. Imagine my surprise when I followed the "predicted" results each week and found that Boise State actually did finish 12-1 with their only loss to Oregon State.
The software also exactly predicted the 2004, 2005 and 2006 seasons--five seasons in a row of perfect predicting. In 2007, it all fell apart, as the software predicted a perfect season while, as we know, Boise State lost to Washington and Hawai'i. I did notice that those overall results were fairly close and surmised that with results this close, one couldn't be reasonably sure about the results that were predicted.
In 2008, I found that the software did a terrible job of predicting the Oregon season--it said Oregon would lose seven games while they lost three. For some reason, however, they continued to accurately forecast Boise State games with a perfect 12-for-12 as Boise State was a perfect 12-for-12.
This made the software 83-2 since 2002 in predicting Bronco football games. But in 2009, another glitch as, even though the software accurately predicted the Boise State win over Oregon in Eugene in 2008, this time, it predicted an Oregon win in Boise. Of course the Ducks didn't come close. That, however, was the only blemish for the season, making E/A Sports' record a sparkling 95-3 as Boise State had another perfect season. Last year, the software contained another loss as once again Boise State was forecast to have an unbeaten regular season and they infamously lost to Nevada. At this point, you have to wonder if it is the software that is screwing up or if it is Boise State. I think the latter.
In any case, EA is now 106-4 in forecasting Boise State results since 2002.
Now that I have your attention, I know you will look forward to the simulation results. I should have them in about 10 days or so.
(Note: The regular season games were played with just one simulation and the result was recorded. To ensure the best chance for an accurate result in the playoffs, 50 simulations were played (they take about five seconds each.) For the team that won the most simulations in those 50, an appropriate sample was chosen for the game below.)
2010 Boise State 33, 2001 Miami of Florida 22 The 2010 Boise State Broncos came back from deficits of 9-0 in the first quarter and 19-17 at the half to defeat the Championship Division first-place Miami Hurricanes this afternoon 33-23 in the Simulation Football League Playoffs.
Miami raced to a 9-0 lead, the result of a Clinton Portis 25-yard run midway through the first quarter and a Todd Sievers 22-yard field goal with 2:38 left. After Boise State had penetrated to the Miami 36 on the opening drive, the Broncos elected to punt on a fourth and five. But Ken Dorsey completed two 25-yard passes, one to Andre Johnson and the other to Ethenic Sands, and a 15-yard penalty for unnecessary roughness placed the ball on the Bronco 25. Portis squirted through the Bronco line for the game's first score. The extra point attempt by Sievers was no good.
The Broncos were unable to generate any offense on the ensuing possession and had to punt. Miami threw a mix of pass and run to drive to the Boise State five before making way for Sievers.
Down 9-0, Boise State came charging back. A good kick return by Titus Young put the Broncos in business at their 36. Bronco quarterback Kellen Moore found Young open for 22. Two plays later, Doug Martin bulled ahead for 11 yards on a sweep to the left. After a Jeremy Avery run of four yards on a draw play, the quarter ended. When play resumed, Moore dropped back and spotted tight end Tommy Gallarda, who caught the 21-yard pass for Boise State's first score.
It did not take long for the Hurricanes to answer, four plays in fact. On the fourth play of the drive, Dorsey hit Jeremy Shockey in stride and the big tight end found paydirt for a 55-yard touchdown. That gave Miami a 16-7 lead and once again the Broncos were against the wall.
Boise State's ensuing drive was more methodical, an 11-play march down the field, with the big play being a Moore to Tyler Shoemaker 26-yard play that gave Boise State a first down on the Miami 16. On a third-and-10, Moore swung the ball to Martin in the flat, and the talented junior did the rest on his own to make it 16-14.
Consecutive sacks by Michael Atkinson and Winston Venable put Miami into a hole and forced a punt. The Broncos advanced the ball to the Miami six before Kyle Brotzman came on to boot home a field goal. Coach Chris Petersen's team had their first lead at 17-16 with 4:04 remaining in the half. Sievers answered with a field goal of his own (26 yards) with 45 seconds left and the half ended with Miami clinging to a 19-17 lead.
The two heavyweight teams entered a defensive struggle, where Brotzman's 25-yard field goal was the only score of the third quarter. The third lead change of the game gave Boise State a 20-19 advantage. Dorsey then engineered a time-consuming 15-play drive that took 6:16 but Boise State's defense kept the Hurricanes to a Sievers field goal from 20 yards.
That was a key turning point for the bend-but-don't break Bronco defense. Moore guided the Broncos on a 10-play drive of their own, hitting Geraldo Hiwat for 11 and Austin Pettis for 19 to put Brotzman within range and the senior delivered with a 46-yard field goal to once again put Boise State ahead 23-22.
The Bronco defense took over from there. Jerrell Gavins picked off an errant Dorsey pass and returned it 15 yards to the Miami 19. Moore hooked up with Young once again for a 17-yard gain to the one-yard line and Avery dove over from there. Brotzman's PAT made it a 30-22 game with 7:51 remaining in the game. The Broncos forced Miami into a three-and-out and when Brotzman tacked on his fourth field goal of the game with 4:07 remaining, the Broncos could sense the victory.
A Ryan Winterswyck interception at the Boise State 16 on the next Miami possession effectively ended the game.
It was definitely a team victory for Boise State--they were outgained 515-398 as the Bronco running game struggled (65 yards on 33 carries). But the Broncos made the plays they had to in coming out victorious. Moore was 26-42 for 303 yards and the two scores while Joe Southwick came on briefly and hit 4-5 for 30. Senior receivers Austin Pettis (6-91) and Titus Young (6-64) were key targets as they have been all year.
For Miami, Portis finished with 127 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. Dorsey hit 27-44 for 376 yards and a touchdown but also the costly interception. Johnson (5-91) and Sands (5-75) paced the Hurricane receivers while Shockey had four receptions for 92 yards and a touchdown.
Boise State advances to the SFL Championship next Saturday against the 2009 Boise State team, which downed USC 59-37 earlier this afternoon. The 2010 Broncos are now 12-1 while the 2009 team is 10-3. Miami ends the season 11-2 with consecutive losses to the 2009 Alabama team on the final weekend of the regular season and the loss today.
(Note: The regular season games were played with just one simulation and the result was recorded. To ensure the best chance for an accurate result in the playoffs, 50 simulations were played (they take about five seconds each.) For the team that won the most simulations in those 50, an appropriate sample was chosen for the game below.)
2009 Boise State 59, 2004 USC 37 The Boise State defense limited the high-flying 2004 USC offense to just eight second half points as the Broncos broke open a close game to run away from the Trojans 52-37 this afternoon in the first Simulation Football League semifinal.
The Boise State offense was balanced in all areas, rushing for 268 yards while passing for 278 and scoring 31 points in the first half and 28 in the second half. Junior field general Kellen Moore's heady play sparked the Broncos, connecting on 20-of-32 passes for 278 yards and three scores with zero interceptions while leading his team on eight touchdown drives. Doug Martin, Jeremy Avery and D.J. Harper continually kept the aggressive Trojan defense off guard, then played ball control once the Broncos gained the upper hand. Martin ran for 136 yards and three touchdowns on just 12 carries, while Avery picked up 110 yards and two TD's on 21 carries and Harper gained 51 yards on eight.
It didn't take long for Boise State to get the first break. On the third play from scrimmage, esteemed Trojan running back Reggie Bush fumbled, with Bronco safety George Iloka recovering the loose ball on the USC 44. Moore backed up and tossed a strike to Austin Pettis at the 42, who maneuvered past a couple of defenders to the USC 27. On the next play, Avery took a pitch, cut right, and scampered down the sideline untouched to put Coach Chris Petersen's team up 7-0.
Jarrett's great end-zone catch gave USC their first lead.
The Broncos held USC on their next possession to force a punt which stopped on the Bronco nine-yard line. But consecutive sacks of Moore by Travis Tofi and Ryan Ting resulted in a safety. USC took advantage on the ensuing kick as quarterback Matt Leinart completed two passes which put the Trojans on the Bronco seven. Leinart's first pass to Steve Smith was underthrown, and his second attempt to Smith was just past Smith's outstretched fingertips. On third down, Leinart floated a pass to Dwayne Jarrett, who came down with the ball in the end zone for a 9-7 USC lead.
Moore and the Broncos drove to the USC nine on their next possession but again penetration led to two sacks and Kyle Brotzman had to come on to kick a 29-yard field goal. That put Boise State ahead once again 10-9. USC's Ryan Killeen answered with a 32-yarder of his own early in the second quarter and the early see-saw game was living up to all expectations.
Kirby Moore is off to the races on 47-yard TD
An exchange of punts gave Boise State the ball in good field goal position at the Boise State 46 after Kyle Wilson returned a punt for 34 yards. The brother-to-brother combination that Bronco fans had been dreaming of hooked up as Moore hit brother Kirby on the run for a 47-yard scoring play. With Brotzman's extra point, the Broncos regained the lead 17-12. That lead was short-lived, as 21 seconds later, LenDale White exposed an opening in the Bronco defense for a brilliant 68-yard run to paydirt and the Trojans were out in front 19-17.
White fools the Broncos a second time
The wild second quarter continued as five plays into Boise State's sixth drive of the game, Martin burst through tacklers for a 45-yard run of his own that gave Boise State a 24-19 lead. But USC returned to the same play call that had resulted in their last touchdown, and once again White broke free for a 60-yard touchdown. The bewildered Broncos lined up for the PAT by Killeen, and USC was ahead 26-24. In a game that had so far included just two punts, Boise State drove down the field on their next possession, capitalizing on another Moore-to-Moore play, this one from eight yards out. It was the eighth lead change of the half and the Broncos now led 31-26.
Knowing every point was precious, USC Coach Pete Carroll ordered Leinart in a hurry-up offense as the Trojans had 1:19 to work with and the ball on their 32. Leinart completed a couple of passes and his 18-yard scramble with 17 seconds left put Killeen in range, and the senior responded with a 33-yarder with four seconds left. The Broncos clung to a narrow 31-29 advantage as the battle-torn warriors went into the locker room.
On Boise State's opening possession of the second half, the Bronco running game took over, and Martin finished the drive with a punctuating 29-yard run. Bronco fans went wild in the stands as their team went up two scores. The tough Boise State defense forced USC's second punt of the game with 11:49 remaining in the third quarter, and the Broncos drove to the USC 31, but a 48-yard attempt by Brotzman was wide left. The Trojans charged forward to the Boise State 42, but Bush fumbled for the second time on a jarring hit by Jeron Johnson and Brandyn Thompson dove on the loose ball.
Consecutive 25-yard plays by Harper (run) and Pettis (pass) paved the way for an 11-yard TD run as Avery went between center Thomas Byrd and guard Will Lawrence. The Bronco senior back, who rushed for 1,573 yards and was second only to Brotzman with 162 points in the regular season, gave Boise State a commanding 45-29 lead.
USC drove to the Boise State 40 yard-line on its next possession, but a Ryan Winterswyck interception effectively ended the game.
Pettis was the top Bronco receiver with five receptions for 83 yards while tight end Kyle Efaw had four catches for 48 yards and Tyler Shoemaker hauled in three passes for 38.
White was magnificent for the Trojans with 250 yards rushing. Leinart finished 17-31 for 217 yards and two TD's. Smith topped the USC receiving corps with five catches for 79 yards. USC finished the SFL season with a 9-4 record.
The Broncos, who won the Boise State Division with an 11-1 record, are now in the SFL Championship against the winner of the other semifinal between the 2010 Broncos and the exciting 2001 team from Miami of Florida.
The Bronco Nation's home away from home for the weekend of Sept. 2-4, 2010, will be Jocks & Jills Sports Grill, 1 Galleria Parkway Southeast, Atlanta, GA 30339, (770-952-8401)
Celebrate in style with the family-friendly folks at Jocks & Jills Sports Grill. They'll have food and drink specials and all the sports you can watch on their multiple large screen plasma TVs and projection screens. No reservations needed, just stop by when you're in the neighborhood or make it your dinner or lunch stop before the big Bronco game. Jocks & Jills is just a two minute walk away from the official Bronco Nation hotel, The Renaissance Waverly. There will be no formal program, but we will be there on Saturday, September 3rd with some fun give-aways for our Bronco fans and look for the Boise State Cheer Squad to make an appearance.
Burroughs is even faster than brother Mitch (5-9, 181) as Dallas broke the 25-year-old state record in the 100. His time of 10.34 ranked as the fastest in the nation last year if you discount wind-aided times. With Miller's size and hands and Burroughs' speed, is it really possible that in one year Boise State could replace Young and Pettis with guys that could turn out to be as good? Again, that's Boise State's history so I wouldn't bet against them. 
